Lewis pointed to the recent Fox News polls that showed Trump trailing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and suggested they reflect a “Democratic wave” that bodes poorly for the GOP’s chances in November.
“The U.S. Senate map is experiencing a similar blue-ish expansion. Democrats need three seats to take control (four, if you assume that Democrat Doug Jones will lose in Alabama), a hurdle that looks increasingly doable,” Lewis wrote.
If this trend continues, Lewis highlights that Republicans will go from controlling the Senate, House, and presidency to losing them all. According to Lewis, this fall from power is not an entirely unpredictable turn of events. He noted Trump’s “hostile takeover” of the party, which he said has become increasingly reliant on an older, less educated demographic that appears to run contrary to the overall demographic trends of the country.
Although Lewis says Trump’s victory gave some hope that the GOP could create a long-term coalition from this demographic, he believes the president has all but ruined the chances of this happening.
“He [Trump] didn’t just burn the village, he sowed salt in the ground, too. He emasculated and destroyed the reputations of a rising generation of Republican leaders, who, depending on their story, will now be viewed as weaklings, co-conspirators, appeasers, racists, phonies, losers, or apostates.”
According to Lewis, a “total wipeout” for Republicans in November could lead to an “intra-party civil war” as some break from Trump while others remain loyal.
The possibility of disaster for the Republican Party in November reportedly has insiders worried. As noted by Peter Nicholas in The Atlantic, the party is starting at a disadvantage; they must defend double the seats as the Democrats while maintaining their 53-47 majority. If Biden takes down Trump in November, Democrats only need to gain three seats to take the Senate as Biden’s vice president — Amy Klobuchar is currently under consideration — would cast the tie-breaker.
Per Vox, many Republican senators who rose to power in the 2014 midterms are facing difficult re-election battles. In the six years since their wins, their respective states have diversified and many have stuck close to Trump, who continues to face criticism for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor at the Cook Political Report, touched on the possible downside of being connected to Trump during the pandemic.
“When the economy was doing well, that was a good thing, but now that has tanked,” she said.