Republican Senator Martha McSally could be in big trouble in her re-election bid, a pollster claimed.
As AZCentral.com reported, the Arizona incumbent is trailing by 13 points to Democrat Mark Kelly in the OH Predictive Insights tracking poll, which the news outlet obtained this week. The poll showed that McSally — who lost a Senate race to Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 and was later appointed to an open Senate seat after the death of longtime Senator John McCain — had the support of 38 percent of voters compared Kelly’s 51 percent. The poll showed that McSally lost four points from the last OH Predictive Insights poll taken in April, while Kelly’s support has remained steady.
Pollster Mike Noble told AZCentral.com that the numbers are unquestionably difficult for the Republican.
“McSally is doing terribly,” he said. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”
The report noted that Kelly’s lead has come from winning a significant number of independent voters — leading by a 2-to-1 margin in that demographic — and from making inroads in the typically Republican Maricopa County. The poll showed that Kelly was pulling 54 percent to 36 percent support among voters in that county, which is the state’s most populous. The latest poll also showed his lead growing, as Kelly had previously held a five-point lead in Maricopa County in May 2019.
Democrats nationally have pointed to Arizona as a potential spot to flip a Republican-held seat in the party’s bid to take back control of the U.S. Senate. There have been signs of progress in that effort that was once considered a long-shot, as Democrats need to net three seats to bring the Senate to a 50-50 tie, which they could break by winning the White House. If Donald Trump were to win re-election, Democrats would need to net four seats in order to take control.
As Politico noted in an April report, Democrats have appeared to seize some momentum with significant fundraising in a number of key races.
Steven Law, president of the Republican super PAC Senate Leadership Fund and an ally of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, told Politico that Republican donors are seeing a difficult road ahead of them.
“The sense is that, no matter what else happens, we’ve got to hold the Senate majority. And it’s not a given,” Law said. “There’s just a broad front to defend, and it’s going to take a lot of resources and a lot of hard work to do it.”