Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump is historic in its steadiness, a polling expert says.
Harry Enten noted in an analysis for CNN that a new Monmouth University poll released this weekend shows that Biden leads Trump 50 percent to 41 percent, with Biden dropping to 47 percent and Trump to 40 percent when third-party candidate Justin Amash was added. As Enten noted, this is in line with the 6-point national lead that Biden has held over Trump for months of head-to-head polling.
Enten noted that polls over the last month showed Biden being up 6 points over Trump on average, matching the polling average from the last year and even going back to the start of 2019, before the former vice president had officially entered the race.
As Enten added, this level of continuity has not been seen in presidential polling in nearly 60 years.
“The steadiness in the polls is record breaking. Biden’s advantage is the steadiest in a race with an incumbent running since at least 1944,” he wrote, noting that 95 percent of all polls have shown the candidates within 6 points of the average. “That could mean it’ll be harder to change the trajectory of the race going forward, though this remains more than close enough that either candidate could easily win.”
Polling has remained steady through a series developments that in other years could have brought major swings for the candidates, including criticism of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus and the nation’s rising death toll, the suspension of Bernie Sanders’ campaign making Biden the presumptive nominee, and an allegation of sexual assault against Biden from a former staffer.
Though the race may be relatively close on a national level, Biden has shown an advantage in the polling of key battleground states that could turn the election. This includes a strength in the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016 and would likely need to hold in order to win in 2020.
Biden has also done well in polling of some key battleground states that could turn the U.S. Senate. As The Inquisitr reported, a recent poll from Hart Research Associates published late this week showed that Biden was opening up a significant lead in areas that could help turn control of the Senate over to the Democrats. As The Hill reported, the poll shows that Biden up 9 points over the president among voters in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, and Montana. The report noted that all of these states have Republican senators up for reelection who could be at risk of losing.