To take control of the Senate, Enten claims Democrats have two options: a net gain of three seats if Joe Biden wins in 2020, or a net gain of four seats if Donald Trump wins reelection.
“An early look at the data finds that Democrats are the slightest of favorites to take back the Senate,” Enten wrote.
“The chance Democrats net gain at least 3 seats is about 3-in-5 (60%), while the chance they net gain at least 4 seats is about 1-in-2 (50%).”
However, Enten notes there’s still a significant amount of uncertainty and says Democrats could end up losing up to four seats and gaining as much as 11.
As for why Democrats’ fortunes are rising, Enten claims that a large part is the national environment, which he says “continues to look good for them.” In particular, he points to their eight-point lead on the generic ballot, which is approximately equal to where they were in 2018 when they had a seven-point lead and doubles their position in 2016
“Based on past trends, this large advantage suggests that races that may look like tossups right now are forecasted to move toward the Democrats over the course of the year.”
With the Democratic Party’s chances rising, Republicans are shifting their strategy. As reported by CNN, Republican Senator David Perdue recently warned Republican activists that the state is at risk of being taken by Democrats. The grim warning reportedly came amid an off-the-record conference call.
According to CNN, Perdue’s warning is a reflection of current Republican fears that the Democrats will seize the Senate. In particular, the publication claims Republicans have specific concern over battles in Kansas and Georgia — two states Trump won in 2016.
McConnell is feeling the pressure, as well. As reported by The Hill, in an interview with Fox News Radio on Monday, McConnell warned that Republicans are currently in a defensive position and said the battle for the Senate in November will be a dogfight.
“Let me just say that the Senate majority has not been a certainty at any point this cycle,” he said, adding that the battle ahead is something that party has expected.