In Wisconsin, an important “swing” state in which Donald Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, Joe Biden holds a three-point lead over the incumbent, according to a new poll by Marquette University Law School. Trump won Wisconsin over Clinton by fewer than 23,000 votes — or under one percentage point — in 2016, taking all of the state’s 10 Electoral College votes.
According to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, writing on his Twitter account, the president “is in deep trouble if this is right.”
Prior to Trump’s surprise win in 2016, no Republican had won Wisconsin in a general election since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Trump is not currently leading polls in any state that he lost in 2016, meaning that he will likely need to hold on to almost every state that he won in that election to repeat his victory. That time, he compiled an Electoral College majority while losing the popular vote to Clinton by nearly 3 million ballots.
Though Biden leads in the poll asking whom Wisconsin voters would choose in the general election, the Marquette survey also asked respondents to say whether they viewed the candidates favorably or unfavorably. Though both candidates performed poorly with “underwater” ratings, Trump outperformed Biden, with a 45 percent favorable rating, against a 50 percent unfavorable result.
Biden also polled at 50 percent unfavorable, but pulled in only 39 percent favorability in the Marquette poll, putting the Democrat “underwater” by 11 points in Wisconsin, compared to five points for Trump.
While Biden has opened a seemingly insurmountable lead in the Democratic primary, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders remains in the race — but his Wisconsin polling results indicate that he would be a weaker candidate to take on Trump there. With a favorable/unfavorable rating of 36-54 — leaving him underwater by 18 points — Sanders also loses to the president in Wisconsin by two percentage points, 47-45, in the Marquette polling results.
Biden also continues to lead Trump in nationwide head-to-head polling. About two weeks ago, a Fox News poll showed Biden with a comfortable, nine-point lead over the incumbent.
A new poll released Wednesday by Grinnell College showed Biden with a narrower, but still solid lead over Trump.
The Grinnell poll of 777 “likely” voters shows Biden taking 47 percent of the vote across the country, to just 43 percent for Trump — a lead of four points for the former U.S. vice president.
The poll also took a favorability rating for the two candidates, as well as for Sanders. According to the results, only Biden holds a positive rating among national voters, with 46 percent favorability, to 42 percent with an unfavorable view of the likely Democratic nominee. But Trump sits eight points underwater, with 51 percent viewing him unfavorably to just 43 who say they have a favorable opinion of him.
Sanders finds himself negative by a single point, with a 43 percent unfavorable rating compared to 42 percent favorable, according to the Grinnell poll.