In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, some U.S. health officials said there was a theory among some mathematical experts that the outbreak could follow in the line of seasonal influenza and subside in warmer weather.
The World Health Organization has since said there is no evidence to back that idea, calling it a “false hope” to rely on the virus acting in the same manner as the flu. But some new findings may start to support that thought.
As Bloomberg reported, some initial research on the coronavirus could back up the suggestion that it would slow in warmer weather. The outlet noted that there are a few researchers who prepared analyses on the virus, including a group of U.S. and Iranian researchers finding that the places where it has taken hold, so far, share similar conditions of mild humidity and temperatures between 41 and 52 degrees Fahrenheit.
The report added that there are not yet any studies that have been published in scholarly journals — meaning they have not been vetted by experts in the field — but said the findings could support the idea that it does not spread as quickly in warmer weather.
“In hotter, more humid places like Bangkok the virus has mainly been seen in people who brought it in from outside, and has not spread quickly through the community, the researchers said. However, they said predictions should be regarded with ‘extreme caution,'” the report noted.
There is still no consensus on how the coronavirus will behave. As NBC News reported, WHO doctor Mike Ryan said there is still hope that this could be the case and that the virus may start to subside on its own, though there’s no proof yet to back that theory.
“We hope it does. That would be a godsend,” he said. “But we can’t make that assumption. And there is no evidence.”
As WBBH/WZVN reported, experts have said there is just not enough evidence yet to know exactly what will happen. The outlet wrote that there seem to be fewer cases of coronavirus in the southern hemisphere, which is now in the late summer months, but this could be from a number of other factors, including a lower global population compared to Asia, Europe, and North America, where the outbreak is currently the most widespread. It added that Australia is still struggling to contain a coronavirus outbreak as well, even in the midst of summer.