Allan Lichtman, a political science professor at American University and the co-creator of the Keys to the White House prediction model correctly called seven of the last eight elections. Since 1984, his model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election, barring the controversial 2000 contest when Republican George. W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate Al Gore.
Per Newsweek, Lichtman is now making predictions about the 2020 presidential election. According to the expert, when it comes to the Democratic Party’s primary race, either current national frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders will win the nomination, or no one will, and the party will face a brokered convention.
“I think the most likely outcomes are [Bernie] Sanders wins or nobody wins, and for the first time in over 50 years we actually have a convention nominating the candidate.”
He added that such an outcome “would be very interesting, who knows what might come out of that.”
In order to win the nomination, Sanders has to win 51 percent or more national delegates — at least 1,991 of them. If he comes short of that, the process will become contested, and so-called superdelegates — who are under no obligation to respect the will of the people — will be activated. A number of superdelegates have already indicated that they would not back Sanders in the case of a brokered convention.
According to Lichtman, even if Sanders manages to win a formidable number of delegates on Super Tuesday, as polling suggests he might, the fact that multiple candidates are strong in various states could complicate the race.
“Remember these are not winner take all. Even if Sanders wins a lot of primaries on Super Tuesday, he may not accumulate enough delegates to get a majority,” he said, pointing to Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former New York City mayor, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, and suggesting that both candidates could win a few primary races.
Lichtman also made his prediction for the general election. According to the expert, the coronavirus outbreak may have dire consequences for President Donald Trump. Although it remains uncertain what impact the global pandemic will have on the economy, the professor noted, an economic crisis would “doom” Trump’s re-election bid.
“We have no idea, the crisis could peter out or it could lead to a worldwide pandemic that could slide America into recession, which would obviously doom Donald Trump,” he said.
According to Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale, the president’s team has created a “huge” operation to confront the eventual Democratic nominee. Trump’s re-election bid will be largely data-driven, since the campaign has the largest voter contact list in history, Parscale revealed during a speech at the Conservation Political Action Conference on Thursday.