Donald Trump had warned repeatedly in recent months that if he were to be impeached, the stock market would crater and the economy would crash.
Instead, the stock market soared in the weeks since the impeachment process started and another sharp upturn immediately after the House voted to impeach the president.
As the Independent noted, Trump’s almost-apocalyptic warnings of economic doom did not come to pass in September, when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi first announced the start of the impeachment inquiry related to Trump’s attempts to pressure Ukraine into digging up dirt on political rival Joe Biden. The S&P 500 rose a healthy 7 percent in that time, and again on Thursday after Trump was formally impeached.
Trump appeared to warn Democrats against moving forward with impeachment, implying that any economic collapse that came afterward would be on their hands.
“If they actually did this the markets would crash,” Trump wrote in September, via the Independent.
“Do you think it was luck that got us to be the best Stock Market and Economy in our history. It wasn’t.”
Trump added that “everybody would be very poor” if he were to be removed from office, though that appears unlikely to come to pass. While Trump became just the third American president to be impeached, there does not appear to be the support necessary in the U.S. Senate to convict and remove him from office. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already expressed his support for Trump and said that Senate Republicans would be working directly with the White House. Removing Trump from office would require a two-thirds vote from the Senate, meaning a considerable number of Republicans would likely need to turn on Trump and their party.
As CCN noted, the likelihood that Trump will remain in office after the expected Senate trial in 2020 seemed to be a factor in the stability of the stock market.
“The Dow’s reaction is a clear indication that the Senate is expected to vote against Trump’s removal,” the report noted.
“So the market is counting against any political upheaval. It is instead looking at the improving economic scenario that should boost the stock market as the year comes to a close.”
Many other experts have noted that the strong economy will be a more significant factor in the performance of the stock market than Trump’s impeachment.
There already appeared to be evidence that impeachment would not sink the economy as well. The Independent noted that the stock market saw a similar climb during President Bill Clinton’s impeachment in 1998.