A majority of American voters believe that Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020, regardless of how they plan to vote, Politico reports. What’s more, at least 40 percent of voters say that Trump will be at the top of their minds when they cast their votes in 2020.
The new poll, conducted by Politico/Morning Consult, found that 56 percent of voters believe it at least “somewhat likely” for Trump to win re-election in 2020. As is usually the case with these things, the results reveal a deep partisan divide — among poll respondents who identified as Republicans, 85 percent expect Trump to win in 2020. 51 percent of Independents expect the same result, and 35 percent of Democrats expect Trump to win.
The poll indicates only what the poll respondents expect to happen, and does not reflect how they plan to vote.
Also according to the poll, Trump’s policies will affect the votes likely to be cast in 2020. About 40 percent of voters say that Trump will be at the top of their minds when they vote, although it is unclear how those voters intend to vote. Among Republican poll respondents, 68 percent say Trump will be at the top of their minds.
No matter if they support him or not, Trump seems to be invoking enthusiasm in the voters. 80 percent of respondents said they intend to vote in 2020, and roughly three quarters of Democrats and Republicans said they’re “very motivated” to vote in the 2020 election, with indications that this motivation could be equally about removing Trump from office as it is about keeping him there.
Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president, said that enthusiasm for or against Trump appears to be likely to drive voters to the ballot box in 2020.
“Our data points show that Republicans and Democrats are equally inclined to say they are motivated and likely to vote in next year’s election,” he said.
As for whether or not Trump will win re-election in 2020, the most recent polls released by RealClearPolitics don’t seem to favor a Trump win, regardless of what voters expect the outcome to be. In national polls released on Tuesday of this week, in a hypothetical matchup between Trump and each of the five highest-polling Democrats (Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris), Trump loses to the Democrat.
In a hypothetical race against Biden, the former vice president beats Trump by 17 percentage points, according to the latest poll numbers. Against Warren, Trump loses by 15 percent. He loses 14 percent against Sanders, 11 percent against Buttigieg, and nine percent against Harris.