Donald Trump will win the 2020 election in a landslide, by an even larger margin than that by which he won in 2016, according to an election modeling system that has been right every time except once.
As MarketWatch reports, Moody’s Analytics has developed an election-modeling system that has gotten it right every time since it began predicting elections prior to the 1980 election. Every time, that is, except in 2016, when it predicted that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Hillary Clinton, of course, did not win, and Trump won the election with 304 electoral votes to Hillary’s 227.
The system predicts that Trump’s 2020 victory will be even bigger than his 2016 one: by one analysis run by the model, he’ll win 351 electoral votes over his hypothetical Democratic rival.
Moody’s Analytics’ model actually consists of three separate models, each taking into account a variety of factors in order to formulate a prediction as to how the voters will cast their ballots: the “Pocketbook” model, the “Stock Market” model, and the “Unemployment” model.
In the Stock Market model, Trump fares the worst, but still wins a decisive 2020 victory. With 289 electoral votes to his hypothetical opponent’s 249. The Unemployment model gives him a stronger margin of victory, 332-206. But the Pocketbook model gives him the strongest margin of victory, with a solid 351 electoral votes to his hypothetical Democratic opponent’s 187.
By comparison, the largest electoral-vote victory of any president in modern times goes to Ronald Reagan, who in 1984 won 525 electoral votes, 97.6 percent, to Walter Mondale’s 13.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says via Politico that this should be a warning siren to Democrats.
“Democrats need to be on high alert. If history is any guide and we get typical turnout, they are going to lose. They need to be at DEFCON 1 or it’s likely Trump will be reelected,” he said.
Politico writer Ben White mirrors Zandi in stating that the key to getting Trump out of office in 2020 rests on Democrats getting out the vote. Noting that strong economic numbers and analytical modeling have their place, White says that the only way Democrats can overcome Trump’s advantage is to get out the vote.
“The key for Democrats to overcome Trump’s advantages on the economy: generating massive turnout,” he writes.
That may yet happen; the Moody’s Analytics model, when considering the possibility that Democrat voters could turn out at the polls in record-high numbers, points to Trump’s hypothetical Democratic opponent winning in 2020.