Although the National Review reports that President Donald Trump’s supporters can feel confident that he will outperform the final polls when Election Day 2020 rolls around — thanks to “shy Trump voters” — it also highlights the fact that it’s unclear how much of a boost this group will give Trump. This uncertainty means that the increase in support might not be enough to help Trump come out on top.
For example, if shy Trump voters give him a five-point boost to recent numbers in key states, he would still lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and if Biden won them and keeps Hillary Clinton’s states, he would win. Of course, this is assuming Trump gets a five-point swing. He might only get a one percentage point boost, or he could get a 10 percentage point boost — it’s all in the air.
Ultimately, National Review highlights that Trump needs to do “way better than his current poll numbers” to take the 2020 election, even when accounting for shy Trump voters that aren’t registering on opinion surveys.
Per The Inquisitr, the Texas Grand Old Party (GOP) is already trying to mobilize support by sending out emails urging voters in the deep-red state to vote Trump in 2020, even though he defeated Hillary Clinton by nine points during the 2016 election.
Newsweek reports that the email tells voters “if you don’t show up for Trump in 2020, there is a high chance it will cost him the election.” It also falsely claims that Democrats are pushing to “open borders to illegal immigrants” and says that they “want to take every last penny from your paycheck and control how you live to pay for their socialist policies and systems.”
— National Review (@NRO) July 14, 2019
According to Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden has good numbers and the best chance of defeating Trump in a head-to-head matchup. Brown also highlights that Democrats are doing good numbers in Texas as well, which could be a problem for Trump.
“It is the largest state in the country with a Republican edge. The president, who is on the wrong side of a too-close-to-call matchup with Biden, barely inches up in similar matchups with all the other Democrats.”
With the growing Hispanic and black population in Texas and an increase in the young, urban population, the historically Republican state is slowly shifting from red to blue, which could mean that Trump will perform worse in the state than in previous years.