Democrats are skeptical about recent polling that suggests their party’s frontrunner, Joe Biden, would easily beat Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. According to The Hill, several prominent Democrats and pollsters have said that early polling also showed Hillary Clinton winning by a landslide, so people shouldn’t put too much stock in the predictions.
Democrat pollster Chris Kofinis pointed out that 2016 polls got the question of who would win wrong.
“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” he said.
Others have shared doubts that polling this early in the game should be considered as an indication of what will happen in the 2020 race.
“Anyone who believes that the Democratic candidate is headed for a landslide victory right now is doomed to repeat the tragic history of 2016,” said Kofinis. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls this far out from the general election.”
One Democrat strategist reminded people that nearly every poll showed Clinton, who ultimately lost the presidential candidacy, as the frontrunner by a comfortable margin in 2016.
“I don’t put any stock in any poll, especially right now. I think Trump starts off in a strong position. Can he be beaten? Yes. But we’ll be going up against a machine and a very organized force,” the strategist said.
Others say that Biden’s lead is primarily built on name recognition at this point, but that when things heat up in the Democratic primary, Biden will lose some of his momentum.
Bernie Sanders’ campaign shot back at the polling numbers, saying that much of Sanders’ support comes from young voters who aren’t represented as well as older voters in these types of polls.
But other Democrats say that the polls are an early indicator that Trump isn’t as strong as some think he is.
One pollster said that Biden’s lead in the poll is substantial enough that it can reveal key trending, particularly when it comes to Trump’s position in getting re-elected.
Still, the 2016 polls weren’t completely inaccurate. Clinton won the national popular vote by more than 2 percent, which was reflected in the numbers that showed her winning. RealClearPolitics found that polls averaged 3.3 percent ahead in favor of Clinton, which isn’t far off of what actually played out.
Trump has been critical of the polling that shows him behind, saying that it is “fake polling” and “fake news.” He also reportedly told his aides to downplay his own internal polling, which has shown him to be trailing Biden.