Donald Trump may be faltering in approval numbers and losing in head-to-head polls for the 2020 election, but an economic model that has been consistently correct in picking presidential winners say he is headed to a landslide victory.
As the Independent reported, economic models that have been consistent in predicting presidential winners are all indicating that Trump is headed to re-election in two years. These models look at factors like GDP growth, disposable income, and wage gains rather than political polling, the report noted, and have consistently predicted which party and which candidate will benefit from the conditions.
“The economy is just so d**n strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics, told Politico.
“I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that,” he added.
The Independent noted that economic models also predicted Trump would win in 2016, even as opinion polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton to be ahead and some poll aggregators gave her as high as a 99 percent chance of winning.
Those same opinion polls show Trump losing once again. A new Fox News poll shows that both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders would beat Trump in a head-to-head poll.
The poll found that Biden was the pick of 31 percent of Democratic voters for their party’s nomination. The former vice president has not yet announced whether he will run, though has been consistently polling at the top of the party and has given several hints that he intends to run.
Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, along with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw, said that Biden appears at this early juncture to be the best bet Democrats have to beat Trump.
“Democratic primary voters would welcome Biden into the field, should he run,” Anderson said. “They prioritize beating Trump, and as of now Biden fares best of the more widely known Democratic candidates against Trump.”
Other general polls show that a majority of voters do not want to see a second term for Donald Trump, including a new Monmouth University poll that showed 57 percent of voters want someone else to win in 2020.
According to Monmouth University polling, 57 percent of voters want someone new in the White House in 2020, and 38 percent want a second term for President Trump. https://t.co/vmISvgtlc3
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) March 24, 2019
Donald Trump also has the advantage of holding the office, as no incumbent has lost since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Trump has been campaigning for a second term since almost immediately after taking office in 2017, going on a series of campaign visits in critical states.