For the eighth year in a row, the Hollywood Reporter‘s awards statistician Ben Zauzmer has released a list of mathematically-based predictions for the winners of the upcoming Academy Awards. So far, the predicted categories include Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.
Zauzmer explained in his report that he uses nothing but data and statistics to predict the award winners, which are chosen by the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences each year, according to the Economist.
“My model considers which categories a film is nominated in, other awards shows, and betting markets, weighting each of these factors by how well it has predicted each Oscar category in past years,” the statistician said.
Roma has a 32.6 percent chance of winning the award for Best Picture, based on the film’s honors from the Director’s Guild and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts — which is essentially the British equivalent to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences The film’s director, Alfonso Cuaron, is also predicted to have a 65 percent chance of winning the honor for Best Director.
“There’s actually a better chance that Roma loses than wins, but it’s still the most likely winner among the eight contenders,” Zauzmer said of the film.
As for Best Actor, Rami Malek has a predicted 74.2 percent chance of winning for his portrayal of the late legendary rock icon Freddie Mercury in the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody. Malek has already taken home a Golden Globe, a BAFTA award, and a Screen Actors Guild award for his performance.
Glenn Close may take home the Oscar for Best Actress, as she has a reported 65.2 percent chance of winning for her role in The Wife. However, as Zauzmer pointed out, she currently leads the race of actors who have received the most nominations without winning.
The highest percentage so far goes to Mahershala Ali, with an 89.6 percent chance of winning Best Supporting Actor for his role in Green Book.
Regina King has a 44.4 percent chance of winning Best Supporting Actress, The Favourite has a 39.8 percent chance of winning Best Original Screenplay, and BlacKkKlansman has a 35.7 percent chance of winning Best Adapted Screenplay.
The 91st Academy Awards will premiere on Sunday, February 24, at 8 p.m. EST on ABC. For the first time in 30 years, the ceremony will go without a host, following the controversy surrounding Kevin Hart in December. Instead, the Oscars will simply have more presenters, according to ABC News.