A new report has predicted that the United States is destined to fall to number three on the list of the world’s largest economies by 2030, with China and India assuming the top two places.
The report, which was written by the British financial services company Standard Chartered, anticipates a significant change in the global economic balance over the coming decade, with seven of the top 10 spots expected to be occupied by emerging economies, according to Fox Business.
The report uses predictions of different countries gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of the size of a country’s economy. GDP measures the market value of all the final goods and services produced over a period of time.
According to Standard Chartered, the United States’ GDP in 2030 will be $31 trillion. But this will be dwarfed by China, with $64.2 trillion and India with $46.3 trillion.
The report predicts that Indonesia will become the world’s fourth-largest economy with a GDP of $10.1 trillion, with Turkey completing the top five with a GDP of $9.1 trillion.
The sixth-biggest economy by 2030 will reportedly be Brazil, the only South American country to make it onto the list. According to the report, their GDP is predicted to reach $8.6 trillion, while just behind them with $8.2 trillion will be Egypt. Russia comes next with a predicted GDP of $7.9 trillion, while Japan and Germany drop down to ninth and tenth respectively, with GDPs of $7.2 trillion and $6.9 trillion.
Among the developed economies to drop out of the top ten altogether are Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy.
“Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies,” the Standard Chartered economists explain in their study.
But there is a general acceptance that predictions such as these are based solely on economic factors and do not take into account geo-political factors which can change significantly over such long time periods.
It is notable that a number of countries rising up the list are controlled either by authoritarian regimes or autocratic leaders. How they interact with the world and each other, and the possibilities for economic sanctions to be imposed for human rights abuses and other issues, could significantly affect these predictions.
But other countries, such as democratic India, continue to grow unabated. The Indian economy is expected to grow by a massive 7 percent over the current financial year ahead of the country’s presidential elections this May.