PredictIt, the online prediction market, suggests that there is a very good chance of Donald Trump being impeached and his odds aren’t looking particularly good at the moment.
According to Heavy, there is a 43 percent chance that Trump will be ousted from the White House during his first term, with the odds decreasing slightly to 37 percent by the end of 2019, assuming he manages to stay in office for that long. Of course, much of this also hinges on the midterm elections. If Democrats take over the House, which they only need 23 seats to do, the odds will increase. If they don’t, they would naturally diminish.
As FiveThirtyEight announced, the odds were recently 80 percent that the Democrats would take back the House, but these odds have shot up by 2 percent over the past week. A further prediction by FiveThirtyEight is that the Democrats will end up with 227 seats in the House, compared with 208 for Republicans after the midterm elections have concluded.
Donald Trump is only too well aware of this fact, which is perhaps why when he recently addressed a crowd of Republicans in Montana he told them, “If I get impeached, it’s your fault because you didn’t vote.”
An ABC News/Washington Post poll has shown that Trump’s approval rating right now is hovering at around 36 percent, and an IBD/TIPP poll also has his ratings at exactly the same figure. Even Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, Kavanaugh, suffers from the lowest support rating of Supreme Court nominees, and none of this is helping his case for midterm elections or impeachment.
As Marketwatch reports, in August Donald Trump promised that if he was impeached, “I think everybody would be very poor, because without this thinking, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe, in reverse.”
Trump predicted a massive financial crash as well if his impeachment ever came to fruition.
“I’ll tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash.”
None of the president’s pleadings seem to have bothered those in the financial industry, with Nicholas Colas, who is co-founder of market analytics company DataTrek Research, noting, “Online prediction markets now make the odds that President Trump will be impeached at 45%, a new high. Equity markets don’t seem to care, and we think they are right.”
So while the future of Donald Trump’s presidency may be uncertain right now, the president’s impeachment odds will change either for better or worse after the upcoming midterm elections.