Donald Trump is predicting economic doom if he were removed from office, but one top banking analyst disagrees.
The head of investment strategy for Barclays posted an economic analysis on LinkedIn that said economic growth is not tied closely with actions of the White House, and that the U.S. economy would likely keep humming even if Trump were impeached or resigned.
“We doubt that capital markets would collapse if President Trump’s administration was endangered, either electorally or indeed legally,” William Hobbs wrote.
“The forward momentum of the world economy, and therefore its capital markets, has little to do with the actions of the White House, past, present or future, in our opinion,” he added.
Donald Trump had previously claimed that the stock market would crash if he were impeached, responding to the Russia investigation that has closed in on his inner circle. In an interview on Fox and Friends, Trump predicted that Americans would face economic peril if he were impeached.
“I don’t know how you can impeach somebody who’s done a great job,” Trump said (via CBS News). “If I ever got impeached, I think the market would crash, I think everybody would be very poor. Because without this thinking [points to head] you would see, you would see numbers that you wouldn’t believe in reverse.”
After Trump made the remarks in late August, a number of economists chimed in to disagree. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR, told CBS News that many corporations have already reaped the benefits of Trump’s tax policies would not be too affected and said many would even benefit from greater stability if he were out of office.
Hogan said that Trump’s trade policies targeting China and Europe have put many corporations on their heels, and his tendency to make hasty announcements regarding foreign relations on Twitter have made a volatile business climate.
The issue of Donald Trump’s possible removal from office took center stage this week thanks to an anonymous op-ed to the New York Times from a senior member of the Trump administration. The op-ed claimed that Trump is unfit to hold office and that other cabinet members have had to save him from making hasty and foolish decisions, noting that the cabinet members have even considered using the 25th Amendment to remove him from office before ultimately deciding to keep working against his impulses from within the administration.