Hurricane Season 2018 (the Atlantic Hurricane Season, that is), has been strangely quiet – too quiet. Until now, that is; new weather models say that the switch has been flipped, so to speak.
As USA Today reports, meteorologist Ryan Maue has looked at the models of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea, and they’re not good.
“Weather models have flipped the switch on the Atlantic hurricane season and see multiple areas of development possible starting mainly this weekend.”
Specifically, trouble appears to be brewing in the Caribbean Sea even as these words are being typed, and by Labor Day weekend the as-yet-unnamed storm could spell trouble for Florida. If it does develop into a hurricane, it’s due to be named Florence.
KHOU-TV (Houston) Meteorologist Brooks Garner expects soon-to-be Florence to come to life in the next couple of days but cautions that it’s way too early to predict where (or even if) it will make landfall.
“The tropical wave will enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and has potential to develop into a tropical system. However, it’s too soon to forecast what it may become or where it may go.”
With the peak of hurricane season close at hand, there are signs that the tropical Atlantic may soon spring to life with the potential for direct impact on the coastal US in the days ahead: https://t.co/9Y9q3VFW4j pic.twitter.com/4euoDgKEXA— AccuWeather (@breakingweather) August 29, 2018
Behind Florence are a couple of systems off the west coast of Africa that, by the following weekend, could turn into hurricanes menacing this part of the world.
So what’s been keeping this part of the world largely hurricane free this season? Wind shear, as AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno explains to AOL News. The weather phenomenon essentially “rips apart” hurricanes, disrupting their formation and/or strengthening. And that wind shear is coming to an end.
“There are signs now that wind shear may drop over a significant part of the Atlantic basin over the next couple of weeks.”
Meanwhile, Weather Channel hurricane expert Rick Knabb reminds readers that about all the hurricane-prediction industry can do at this time is predict that there are soon going to be more hurricanes (probably), but it’s way too early to try to pin down when or where.
“When models start suggesting tropical cyclone development many days in advance in multiple parts of the Atlantic basin, while they might not be right about exactly when and where, it does indicate that the atmosphere is changing and it’s about to get busy overall for September.”
The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season has, so far, been almost nonexistent compared to the devastating 2017 season, which saw Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria devastate Houston, the Caribbean, and Puerto Rico, respectively.