August 28, 2018
Beto O'Rourke Statistically Tied With Senator Ted Cruz In Tough Texas Battle For 2018 Seat, New Polling Shows

Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke is hoping to unseat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas this November and new polling shows that he might have a shot at making it happen. When O'Rourke first embraced this campaign, many thought that he was a definite long-shot to beat Sen. Cruz. However, new polling shows that he's narrowing the gap with steady progress and he might have a shot at winning.

An e-poll released this week by Emerson College showed that Beto O'Rourke was now at 37 percent with Ted Cruz at 38 percent. The poll was conducted August 22 through August 25 and released on Monday. Four percent of those surveyed said they planned to vote for someone other than Cruz or O'Rourke, and 21 percent said they were still undecided. The poll has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

The Emerson College poll also noted that O'Rourke may have a couple of things going for him compared to Cruz heading into the November 8 election. The Democratic challenger leads the sitting senator in favorable ratings among independents, as well as among 18 to 34-year-olds. O'Rourke still beats Cruz in the next age group up, 35-54, but the numbers flip with older voters in the upper two brackets favoring Cruz.

The site Fivethirtyeight has been tracking the polls on this fierce battle for months now, and O'Rourke has been steadily narrowing the gap between him and Cruz. For example, they note that in late May, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Cruz up by 11 points. Since the beginning of August, however, polling across the board has shown this to be a single-digit race, with this latest poll showing the tightest results yet.

As it happens, this latest poll was conducted as a recent video clip of O'Rourke went viral. As @nowthisnews shared on Twitter, Beto gave a thorough and considered answer when someone asked him about NFL players kneeling during the anthem at games. Many have applauded his response, but his opponent Cruz is already trying to use it against him, saying his answer was out-of-step with Texans.

Can O'Rourke pull this one out in typically red Texas? Real Clear Politics currently lists this race as "Leans GOP," but it doesn't look as if Beto has any intention of slowing down in the 10 weeks of campaign time he has remaining. Many people would call this a stunning, key victory if Beto O'Rourke can beat Sen. Ted Cruz and everybody will be watching the polls closely in these last weeks leading into the November 8 election.