Steve Bannon, Donald Trump’s once-favored ex-senior strategist, has told Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs that whether the president ends up being impeached or not will depend in large part on the midterm elections coming up in November.
According to CNN, Bannon believes that the upcoming elections are pretty much a referendum on impeachment and that Trump’s hardcore supporters need to make sure they get out there in full force and vote. If this doesn’t happen, the president’s impeachment odds may skyrocket if there is no consolidated show of support for Republicans.
“Today clarifies that November is a referendum on impeachment — an up or down vote. Every Trump supporter needs to get with the program.”
Steve Bannon’s claim may not be too far-fetched when considering that there is a very strong possibility that the Democrats could take control of the House in November. With recent polls suggesting that Democrats have an 11 percent edge over Republicans, impeachment odds for Donald Trump would certainly be markedly higher if Republicans fare badly in the elections.
In terms of indictment, despite the fact that Trump’s old lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight charges and testified under oath that the president had both “directed” and “coordinated” him to make sure secret payments stayed hidden, something that is illegal and goes against campaign finance laws, the president is still very unlikely to indicted.
The main reason for this is that the office of Robert Mueller has reportedly decided that they will go along with Justice Department regulations which specify that a president currently in office cannot be indicted.
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) August 22, 2018
As Rudy Giuliani noted back in May, about the most that could happen is that a report would be written up.
“All they get to do is write a report. They can’t indict. At least they acknowledged that to us after some battling, they acknowledged that to us.”
It is also worth noting that John Roberts of Fox News was just told on Tuesday evening by an unnamed White House source that Donald Trump will never be indicted.
Source close to @realDonaldTrump tells Fox News "remember, the President cannot be indicted."
— John Roberts (@johnrobertsFox) August 21, 2018
If Mueller chooses not to push for an indictment of Trump, which is the most likely scenario, the biggest threat that the president faces is that the House will decide they should begin working on articles of impeachment.
However, the indictment and impeachment odds could change considerably depending on the outcome of the Mueller investigation and whether Trump is exonerated or not.
While it currently looks like impeachment odds are higher than indictment for Donald Trump, according to Steve Bannon the president’s political future reportedly really hinges on the November election, when voters will decide if he is in or out.