In a report by CNN, numerous metrics were measured in regards to how Democrats are likely poised for a big win on the upcoming midterm Election Day. One of those metrics was betting markets.
While Trump supporters often dismiss polls and their reports as “fake news,” it’s important to note the distinction between betting markets and traditional polling as reported by news outlets.
Traditional election polling is generally done by a pollster after being hired by an outlet to provide polling figures. For example, CBS recently put out a poll which was conducted by the pollster YouGov. Different pollsters utilize different polling techniques when collecting data, but these methods are generally always disclosed for reference and for purposes of transparency.
However, betting markets differ in that such markets. For example, the website PredictIt, allow users to allot a certain amount of money to bet on the outcome of elections. Furthermore, they do not restrict their bets to elections nor do they factor in what a user’s personal political preference is. PredictIt allows bets to be placed on anything from whether or not Donald Trump may be impeached, to the likelihood of Oprah Winfrey actually running for president in 2020.
Historically speaking, betting markets have generally had a slight conservative bias in previous elections.
While ElectionBettingOdds shows a strong likelihood of Republicans maintaining control of the Senate in 2018, they also show a rock-solid likelihood of Democrats making major gains in the United States House of Representatives following the upcoming midterm elections this November.
Betting odds put Republicans at about a 37 percent chance of maintaining control of the House of Representatives. While current and potential House Democrats may feel poised for an incoming victory, it’s unlikely they’ll allow complacency to start the celebration early.
In 2016, polling and betting odds had Hillary Clinton as a strong favorite to win. Many blamed Democrat complacency on low voter turnout in key states, as some seemed to already be celebrating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election victory long before Election Day. That victory was, of course, never realized.
Donald Trump is currently feeling the pressure of a potential incoming Democrat House of Representatives and has thus been lashing out at Democrats on Twitter and also endorsing every down-ballot Republican he can, to garner support and maintain the current Republican congressional majority in both the House and the Senate.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval ratings in traditional polling continue to report historically low numbers for the president, suggesting potential trouble for Republican leadership this November.