People around the country have been paying close attention to the special election set to take place in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, March 13. Democratic candidate Conor Lamb has been generating a lot of buzz, and President Donald Trump recently visited the state to stump for his opponent, Republican candidate Rick Saccone. A new Monmouth University poll shows Lamb with an edge over Saccone, and there are other signs that the 18th Congressional District could move from red to blue on Tuesday.
The new Monmouth University poll shows Conor Lamb now leading Rick Saccone 51 percent to 45 percent. This race has looked tight for some time now, even though the district has traditionally been a Republican one. Monmouth also details that Lamb earns substantial favorables from both Democratic and Independent likely voters, while Republicans seem to feel somewhat lukewarm about Saccone.
The election set to take place Tuesday pits Lamb against Saccone in a quest to take over Rep. Tim Murphy’s seat. Murphy resigned last October after a scandal broke detailing a prior affair where he reportedly urged his mistress to get an abortion.
FiveThirtyEight noted that President Trump won this district by almost 20 points in the 2016 election and Murphy didn’t even face a Democratic opponent during his 2014 and 2016 runs. However, Lamb is shaking things up in this district.
The 33-year-old candidate’s background as both a former captain in the Marines and a former assistant U.S. attorney may work in his favor in this area. In addition, Lamb’s relatively conservative views on gun control and abortion likely give him a boost in this traditionally Republican district as well.
Lamb’s team has raised nearly $4 million throughout the campaign, compared to just $920,000 on Saccone’s side, and both men have had high-profile politicians visiting Pennsylvania to stump for them. While President Trump, and his son Don Jr., have worked to rally voters for Saccone, Lamb has had Vice President Joe Biden by his side during multiple appearances.
Polling has shown that this is likely going to be a close election on Tuesday, but Monmouth isn’t the only pollster now showing Lamb ahead of Saccone. RABA Research also just released a poll showing Conor up by four points over Rick and while Gravis Marketing swung a few points the other way, a poll via Emerson College earlier this month also showed Lamb slightly ahead of Saccone.
The win in this 18th district will surely come down to turnout, and many note that even if the Republicans were to hold onto the seat, the margin compared to how Trump performed in the area could still provide important insight for Democrats heading into the midterms in November. All eyes are on this special election as Democrats wait to see if they can pull an upset win much like they recently saw in Alabama while Republicans aim to hold onto this traditionally GOP seat.
Will it be Conor Lamb or Rick Saccone taking home the win in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district Tuesday night? It looks like it’ll be a wild night of return watching as everybody waits to see how the results pan out.