Chinese Tiangong-1 Space Station Might Crash Soon, Large Pieces Expected To Hit Surface

New reports are adding to the speculation that China’s Tiangong-1 space station might crash within a few months from now, six years after its launch.

According to a report from the Guardian, Tiangong-1, or “Heavenly Palace,” took to space in 2011 as a “potent political symbol” of China, as officials sought to make the country into a major player in the world of space travel. In the years since then, the space lab saw its share of milestones, including a visit from China’s first female astronaut, Liu Yang, in 2012, and a number of manned and unmanned missions. But it was just last year when it was determined that Tiangong-1 would likely crash to Earth sometime in 2017 and 2018, as officials had lost control of the satellite.

The Guardian noted that authorities have informed the United Nations of a more specific timeline for Tiangong-1’s crash landing, as the space station is now expected to crash down between October 2017 and April 2018. At the time the Inquisitr reported on the satellite in August, there was no specific timeline, but Tiangong-1 was expected to come down “sometime in the next year.”

Speaking to the Guardian, Harvard University astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell noted that there’s a good chance most of the space station will burn up in the atmosphere, but added that it’s also possible some parts may weigh in the neighborhood of 220 pounds (100 kilograms) when they touch down on Earth’s surface. While there’s only a small chance of the debris harming people once it crashes down, Chinese officials gave the UN’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space a heads-up in May, informing the department that it will keep a close eye on Tiangong-1’s crash landing and let the UN know when the satellite starts its final descent.

As quoted by the Guardian, McDowell said last year that it will be hard to forecast where Tiangong-1 will be descending, even in the days leading up to the final plunge.

“You really can’t steer these things. Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won’t know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it’s going to come down. Not knowing when it’s going to come down translates as not knowing where it’s going to come down.”

McDowell also stressed that there are other variables that could influence where Tiangong-1 will be crashing down to. Even a minor variation in atmospheric conditions could move the landing from one continent to another, he added.

Although there are concerns about large pieces of debris hurtling down during the final descent, Gizmodo pointed out that Tiangong-1 is “very small” compared to other space stations. And it won’t be the first spacecraft to uncontrollably reenter Earth, as there have been others, such as NASA’s 77-ton Skylab space station in 1979, that made a similarly uncontrollable descent, with some large parts crashing down outside Perth, Australia, but not causing any injuries.

[Featured Image by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images]