On the eve of the 2016 United States Presidential election, a barrage of nine new national polls — likely the final polls of the marathon campaign — went public and they showed Hillary Clinton in charge of the race with just hours remaining for Republican Donald Trump to change millions of voters’ minds. Based on the final polls, which show Clinton leads in eight of the nine, the former U.S. Secretary of State is on her way to a close, but clear victory on Tuesday, which would make her the 45th president and the first woman elected to the office in the country’s 240-year history.
Final predictions from statistically-based election forecasters also came in on Monday, with Benchmark Politics posting final odds of a Clinton win at 87 percent. Reuters/Ipsos, which as run a daily tracking poll throughout the presidential campaign, projected Clinton’s chance of victory at 90 percent.
In Monday’s polling frenzy, Clinton led by as many as six points — a margin she hit in two separate polls — and trailed by just two points in the single poll to show a Trump lead. All of the polls asked voters for their preference in a four-way presidential race, which would include former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, and Green Party nominee who has run for numerous political offices but never held one outside of Lexington, Massachusetts.
BLOOMBERG POLITICS/SELZER & COMPANY: In the last Bloomberg poll of the campaign, Clinton held on to a three point lead, 44 percent to 41 for Trump. Johnson took four percent and Stein two, with four percent saying they wouldn’t be voting at all this year.
Another four percent declined to reveal their choice to the Bloomberg pollsters but only one percent of voters said that they are either unsure go who they would vote for — or could not “remember.”
But in a significant finding that would appear to be reassuring to Clinton, the Bloomberg poll found that 37 percent of its respondents had already voted. And among that group whose votes are now locked in, Clinton is winning big — 46 percent to 38 for Trump. That would leave Trump with a steep hill to climb among the remaining 63 percent of voters on election day.
The 37 percent figure lines up more or less with the actual count of roughly 40 million early votes cast. With about 126 million voters in 2012, even if the same number voted this year, that means about 32 percent have already locked in their votes.
IBD/TIPP: The tracking poll taken daily by Investor’s Business Daily together with research firm TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) claims to be “the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.” Though by its own statistics, in 2012 IBD/TIPP overestimated Republican Mitt Romney’s showing against President Barack Obama by 2.3 points.
In any event, the IBD/TIPP poll has been among the most favorable to Trump in recent weeks, showing the New York real estate mogul with a lead over the past three days — with that Trump lead expanded to its widest margin, two percentage points, on Monday.
The IBD poll was the only one of the eight issued on the final day before the election to show Trump ahead, in this case with 43.1 percent to Clinton’s 40.7. Johnson captured 6.3 percent and Stein 2.2, while 5.3 percent answered “not sure.”
CBS NEWS: The outlook was rosier for Clinton in the final CBS News poll with Clinton holding a four-point, 45-41 lead. The telephone poll of 1,753 adults including 1,426 registered voters also found that Clinton voters now topped Trump voters when it came to “enthusiasm” for their candidate, a switch from one week earlier.
CBS News made the full results if its poll publicly available, and they can be read below.
FOX NEWS: In the final Fox News poll, conducted by Democratic pollsters Anderson Robbins Research and Republican research firm Shaw & Company Research, Clinton also holds a four-point lead, 48 percent to 44.
Johnson polled only three percent and Stein her usual two.
ABC News/Washington Post: In another daily tracking poll, Clinton also held a four-point lead at 47-43 over Trump. The poll also asked Johnson and Stein supporters to pick either Clinton or Trump, and in that case, Clinton led 49-46. But the ABC News/Washington Post poll found that the “third party” candidates presence in the race damaged Trump more than Clinton.
Eight percent of Republican leaning independents said they would vote for a third party candidate — mostly Johnson or Stein — while only five percent of Democratic leaning independents favored one of the alternative candidates.
MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY: New Jersey-based Monmouth University was one of two pollsters on Monday who found a commanding six-point lead for Clinton and the only one that put Clinton at 50 percent support, even with Johnson nd Stein in the race. Trump collected only 44 percent of the prospective vote in the Monmouth poll.
Monmouth also asked voters who they expect will win the election, discovering that 57 percent of voters, no matter which candidate they plan to vote for, expect Clinton to win while only 28 percent say they believe Trump will be the winner after voting ends on Tuesday.
A study by The Brookings Insitute think tank conducted during the 2012 election cycle found that asking voters who they expect will win an election is actually a more accurate predictor of the outcome than asking voters who they plan to vote for.
THE ECONOMIST/YOUGOV: The polling firm YouGov along with The Economist magazine found a four-point lead for Clinton, at 45-41. The Weekly poll has held mostly steady for Clinton, seeing her lead at three points a week ago and five points a week before that, before settling on a four-point margin in the firm’s final presidential poll before election day.
RASMUSSEN REPORTS: The final daily “White House Watch” tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports — another polling firm that had shown better results for Trump than many other polls throughout the campaign — found that Clinton held a two-point lead over Trump on the eve of the election, 45-43.
But Rasmussen also asked early voters which candidate had received their votes — and found that Clinton led in votes already cast by an imposing 16 points, 53 to 37. Again, Clinton’s significant advantage in early voting would make Trump’s task on election day a formidable one to say the least.
NBC NEWS/SURVEY MONKEY: Finally, on the eve of the election, NBC News and Survey Monkey predict a clear Clinton victory, with a six-point margin for the former First Lady and New York Senator, who beats her former reality TV star Trump 47 percent to 41.
Despite seemingly wild fluctuations and a roller coaster race in many other polls, the NBC/Survey Monkey poll has not wavered in any big way throughout the campaign, with Clinton holding a close but comfortable lead from wire to wire.
“Over the course of months of NBC News/SurveyMonkey polling, the numbers have remained remarkably stable,” NBC News reported Monday. “Clinton has not only maintained a lead over the Republican nominee since the end of July, but the margin of her lead has been between 4 to 6 percentage points since the second week of September.”
The Huffington Post Pollster.com average of all polls sees Clinton with a 4.6 point lead in the hours leading up to the election, and the Pollster.comelection forecast predicts Clinton as a virtual lock to win the presidency, with a 98.2 percent probability of victory, compared to a mere 1.5 percent chance for Trump.
The FiveThirtyEight.com site has been the most favorable to Trump of the major election forecasters, but that site’s projection saw Clinton with a 70.3 percent chance of winning the White House by late Monday afternoon.
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