World War 3 Deterrence: Russia’s Aggression Prompts Eastern European Homegrown Troop Build-Up

With all the talk of World War 3 being just a diplomatic mistake or military confrontation away, deterrence as a strategy has been seized as a credible alternative to actual war with Russia in the eastern Europe countries that border the Russian Federation and its allies. The line of thinking suggests that if there are enough troops on the ground or ready to mobilize at a moment’s notice, then Russia just might resist that urge to invade and re-attach the eastern European nations it once held sway over as part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (U.S.S.R.).

The Daily Signal reported last week that nations along the border with Russia have been arming themselves quietly over the past few years. Those same countries have also seen a rise in the numbers of members of the home guard and militia groups. Given that many of those countries have a rich history of partisan fighting, the threat of a Russian invasion, one exemplified the increased militarization and assertiveness along its western borders has prompted a protectionist and nationalist movement from Ukraine to the Baltic States.

Although it is understood that if a major military incursion on Russia’s part occurs and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) will likely retaliate, per its mutual defense treaty agreement that an attack on one member is an attack against all members, to contain the Russian advance, the intent of the grassroots mobilization is to add another level of deterrence to those already in existence (tanks, missile systems, aircraft). Since Russia knows something about partisan movements, fielding a fairly successful one against the Germans in World War II and, conversely, seeing its vaunted Red Army embarrassed by the freedom fighters in the ill-fated occupation of Afghanistan, it is believed the more home national guardsmen the eastern Europeans can mobilize, the less likely an invasion.

So what is eastern Europe doing to build a credible deterrent against a potential Russian invasion?

The Baltic States — Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia — have increased their collective military spending on new equipment to nearly $400 million in 2016, up from $210 million in 2014, according to IHS Jane’s, a British military analysis firm. The increase is the largest of any region on the planet, according to the report. In the past few months, Lithuania has issued a guerilla warfare manual to its citizenry and Estonia, which has a standing army of only 6,000, has watched its civilian paramilitary group, the Defense League, conducts partisan warfare training with its 25,400 members.

Romania will receive new British Typhoons to help patrol its skies in the coming months.

The U.S. has also committed troops to Poland, itself no stranger to partisan movements against both Germans and Russians.

But it is Ukraine that has shown a massive increase in both the strength of its standing military and in members of its national reserves. Since Russia militarily annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, Ukraine, which saw a number of Russian troops on its borders as it protested the annexation, amassed an army of more than 300,000 (250,000 in its standing military, 80,000 in reserves). It has increased its military spending by 23 percent in 2014, 10 percent in 2015 and again in 2016, and will increase spending by 10 percent each year going forward.

There is an ongoing military action on the Ukraine border with Russia. Every day, gunshots are heard in an area that is supposed to be under a ceasefire. Ukraine is not only on guard against Russians at the border, it also is engaged with Russian-supported rebels in its own territory.

As the Inquisitr has reported, eastern Europe will be reinforced with NATO troop commitments for the next few years. U.S., British, German, and Canadian troops, along with contingents from other NATO nations, will deploy to the Baltic States, Poland, and likely Norway for military exercises in 2017.

Russia Today reported last week that the United States, in what is being dubbed a “reassurance” deployment, will send 4,000 soldiers to eastern Europe for what is being dubbed Operation Atlantic Resolve. Stars and Stripes reported that 1,750 airmen, along with 60 aircraft, including CH-47 Chinooks, UH-60 Blackhawks, and medevac helicopters, will also be deployed. The nearly 6,000 troops and armament will see service in undisclosed assignments in Latvia, Romania, and Poland.

But can increasing troop count, especially with an emphasis on guerilla or partisan fighting training, work as a deterrent against a Russia intent on reacquiring the full glory of Russia during its dominance of the U.S.S.R.? Perhaps. For many who fear a Russian invasion and a ramp-up to World War 3, it is a strategy worth developing, given that doing nothing and suffering the alternative is simply unconscionable.

[Featured Image by NEstudio/Shutterstock]