Hillary Clinton had lost some momentum in the national and latest polls for the Presidential election in recent weeks heading into the Election Day that will decide the forty-fifth President of the United States. The Nate Silver blog for Project 538 reported last night that Donald Trump’s “momentum has halted and that Clinton may even be regaining ground.”
A look at the New York Times average of the latest Presidential polls heading into the election confirms this, with Hillary Clinton leading in many key swing states, including Florida. The Huffington Post also reported last night on an Huffington Post/You Gov survey that revealed what some Americans are feeling about each of the Presidential candidates, and how the majority of Americans aren’t Trump fans.
In the Huff Post/YouGov survey of 1,000 Americans, the majority of Americans, over 53 percent, believe that Donald Trump will “hurt the U.S. as a whole” and only 30 percent of Americans believe that Donald Trump will help America, while 17 percent were unsure either way.
But that doesn’t mean that Americans have locked in faith for Hillary Clinton, with 44 percent of Americans saying they believe that Hillary Clinton will hurt the U.S. as a whole. The same poll showed that 59 percent of Democrats think Hillary Clinton will help the country, and that 89 percent of Democrats think Donald Trump will hurt the country.
63 percent of Republicans think Donald Trump will help the country, and 82 percent of Republicans think Hillary Clinton will hurt it. The results show a clear partisan divide, and that neither candidate has secured 100 percent of their party support.
Even so, voters will have to make one choice or another come Election Day, and the Nate Silver blog says that Hillary Clinton’s recent setback in the polls is starting to bounce back in her favor. Nate Silver chalks this up to the Hispanic vote, a demographic where Hillary Clinton has a clear lead in the polls and in early voters. It could be the demographic that secures the election for her, if the numbers today stay consistent through Election Day, now only 4 days away.
One of many reasons why there's a lot of uncertainty in polls this year. They don't have a good grasp on the Hispanic vote. https://t.co/QVeYztf7sS— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
As the Inquisitr previously reported, a look at the latest state-by-state polls for the Presidential election had Hillary Clinton with the electoral college advantage going into Election Day. Those numbers have not changed much, and have even tipped stronger in her favor with subsequent polls. At the time of press in that report, Hillary Clinton was leading in only four of 10 swing state polls. Today, the New York Times has her leading in nine of 13 swing state polls, a list that includes Michigan, Georgia, and Virginia, states that were not included in the 10 swing state polls previously reported.
The general consensus of poll analysts suggests the most recent polls “point to a Clinton victory.”
I've analyzed 1,221 polls of the presidential election in all 50 states. They point to a Clinton victory. https://t.co/Xmp9oeVHo6— Drew Linzer (@DrewLinzer) November 4, 2016
The New York Times aggregate of data that averages all of the most recent polls has Hillary Clinton ahead nationally by just under 3 points with a 45.5 percent lead to Donald Trump 42.9 percent at the national level. In this New York Times average of polls, Hillary Clinton leads in Virginia by 6.6 points, Pennsylvania by 5.2 points, Colorado by 4.5 points, North Carolina by 3.9 points, Michigan by 3.8 points, and Wisconsin by 3.5 points.
It is also a dead heat in Nevada according to this average, with Hillary Clinton up by 0.6 points. However, as the Inquisitr previously reported, polls are taken on “likely voters,” and Hillary Clinton maintains a significant lead in Nevada with early voters. She also reportedly leads in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina for early voters.
@ppppolls Among early voters— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2016
Clinton 54 (+10)
Clinton 59 (+19)
Clinton 60, +26
Hillary Clinton maintains a tight lead in New Hampshire and Florida, where it is also still considered a dead heat for the candidates. She leads by 1.5 points in New Hampshire and by the same amount in Florida according to the New York Times average of polls.
Donald Trump’s strong swing states are in the West and the South. He leads in Arizona by 2 points, in Georgia by 2.2 points, Iowa by 2.9 points, and in Ohio by 3.6 points. His biggest trouble right now with his momentum stabilizing is that he has reportedly lost his edge in Florida, a state with 29 electoral college votes that Trump must win in order to win the election according to the New York Times in a separate report.
Florida slipped further away from Trump yesterday. Our model shows him now down 89,483 votes. He would need a 3.8% shift in polls here.— Kevin Cate (@KevinCate) November 5, 2016
The New York Times also says that both candidates will be in Florida this week to try an secure their lead in this state and the race for those coveted 29 electoral college votes. But the New York Times reports the Hispanics are “voting in far greater numbers than they did four years ago” and this could make Florida a difficult win for Donald Trump.
In Nevada, the early voters have definitely led some electoral college maps to lean blue.
Now it happened in Nevada: pic.twitter.com/yf12CPd0UB— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2016
Nevada is also home to a very tight Senate race. If Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto wins the Senate seat in Nevada, she would make history as the first female Hispanic Senator of the United States. This could suggest one of the reasons why the Hispanic vote is coming out very strong in Nevada, and in Hillary Clinton’s favor.
Donald Trump has not given up on Nevada yet, and will also be in Nevada this weekend according to the New York Times. Colorado is another tight race for both candidates, a tenet that appears to be acknowledged by Hillary Clinton’s recent push to sing money into ad buys in Colorado for the first time since this summer reports the New York Times.
Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes are highly sought after by both candidates, and Hillary Clinton continues to maintain her lead there according to all of the latest polls for the Presidential election. The state is leaning blue, but is still a tight race. The geography of Pennsylvania plays a role in that, according to the New York Times.
The central part of Pennsylvania is where Donald Trump’s strengths are, however the New York Times says the “T” of Pennsylvania, notably Philadelphia and its surrounding areas is where the presidential elections are won or lost. This is the area of Pennsylvania where Hillary Clinton reportedly dominates the polls. Hillary Clinton also reportedly leads in Pennsylvania early voters.
Hillary Clinton will wrap up her campaign in the Keystone state, finishing it off Monday evening with a Katy Perry concert in Philadelphia. The New York Times reports that before the concert, Hillary Clinton’s last campaign rally will be on Monday in Philadelphia, and will include appearances from President Obama and the First Lady Michelle Obama.
These latest polls for the presidential election suggest that Donald Trump may be in some trouble, but only if Hillary Clinton can keep the momentum she has picked up in recent days. The polls also tell us that whereas the African American vote played a large role in the Barack Obama election, the Hispanic vote could be the tipping point in Elections 2016.
[Feature Image by John Locher/AP Images]