As reported by LeGlobalIsTe, early voting Florida polls are showing that Hillary Clinton has an eight-point lead over Donald Trump in the 2016 election. But even more surprising, a survey carried out by TargetSmart/College of William and Mary reveals that 28 percent of early voting Florida Republicans voted for Clinton instead of Trump. This is a shocking result that makes it highly unlikely Donald Trump – even with the assistance of FBI Director James Comey – can win the state of Florida.
In itself, Donald Trump losing Florida would be extremely significant. But in the broader 2016 general election, it has even greater importance. From a statistical standpoint – when looking at the Electoral College – it is virtually impossible for Trump to win the presidency without winning Florida. And it now looks very much like he won’t.
Significance of Early Voting
Florida polls showing that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump has the lead at this point in the election wouldn’t necessarily guarantee that either would win the state, except for the impact of early voting. Early votes – as Julius Caesar would put it – have already been cast, which makes them like money in the bank.
Early voting helps to mitigate the impact that last-second controversies – or red herrings produced by the FBI – can have on the final outcome of the election. Before early voting in Florida, it would have been possible to release damaging – even if inaccurate – information about one’s opponent just prior to the election and essentially steal the whole thing.
As noted by NBC News, many of the battleground states have established early voting. As with the early voting Florida polls showing Clinton ahead overall – and even pulling in Republican voters — early voting in these states will clearly benefit Hillary Clinton at this point in the 2016 election.
Clinton leads in Pennsylvania and Florida -- in CNN polls, which have been tough on her: https://t.co/o1ux6I0Pj9— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 2, 2016
Clinton Lead in Florida Polls
The early voting Florida polls carried out by TargetSmart/College of William and Mary reveal more than just the fact that one-third of Florida Republicans seem to be voting against their own candidate. This survey also showed that Hillary Clinton – as it now stands in Florida – is leading Donald Trump by eight points, at 48 to 40 percent.
This Florida poll stands in stark contrast to a number of other recent polls that suggest that Florida is virtually a tie between Clinton and Trump. Tom Bonier of TargetSmart indicates that his firm’s polling approach and methods result in a much more accurate view of Florida early voting results.
BREAKING: Unknown virus spreadin' in Florida that's causin' 28% of Republicans to regrow a conscience. https://t.co/qukRjOnFOn— Tea Pain (@TeaPainUSA) November 2, 2016
For instance, most of the early voting Florida polls are simply trying to find out what percentage of Democrats versus Republicans have already voted. They overlook the possibility that some of these voters might have crossed party lines and voted for the other candidate.
While these results show that 28 percent of Republicans who voted early in Florida voted for Hillary Clinton, the reverse is not true for Donald Trump. The numbers indicate that in early voting, only 6 percent of Democrats in Florida chose to vote for Trump.
Effect of Early Florida Voting
Polls in Florida can reverberate across the national election results because of the Electoral College system. As virtually all pollsters and experts on the election process in the United States will tell you, Democrats start out with a tremendous advantage in the Electoral College.
As reported by CBS News, Democrats are virtually guaranteed to get at least 200 Electoral College votes. Given that only 270 are needed to win and that Republicans have far fewer guaranteed states, the Republicans can’t afford to lose major battleground states like Florida.
Hillary Takes 8 Point Lead in Florida EV: 28% of Republicans Crossing Over to Vote for Hillary!— kalani brady (@InsecureDonald) November 2, 2016
Great job Florida!https://t.co/dy0NiEIpud
In fact, Florida’s 29 Electoral College votes are an absolute necessity for Donald Trump. No Republican candidate for president of the United States has won in the general election since 1928 without also winning Florida. On the other hand, a number of Democratic candidates have been able to win the presidency without having to win Florida.
This is why the early voting Florida polls conducted by TargetSmart/College of William and Mary are so devastating for Donald Trump and the Republicans. If they don’t win Florida, they will not beat Hillary Clinton.
[Featured Image by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images]