Exactly one week before Election Day, Moody Analytics' economic election model (which has correctly predicted presidential election outcomes since 1980) is predicting a Hillary Clinton presidency. Not only that, the model is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 election cycle by a veritable landslide.
Even though, as ABC News reports, Donald Trump is now up by one point in the polls, Hillary is killing it in the electoral college. The Hill reports that the Moody Analytics model is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win with 332 electoral votes. That's well ahead of the 270 electoral votes she needs to clinch the presidency.That's also 126 votes ahead of the 206 electoral votes Donald Trump is predicted to win in the November 8 election. Any way you slice it, if the Moody's model is as accurate as it has been in elections past, Hillary Clinton will become the first female POTUS on November 8. And she's predicted to do so by such a wide margin that Donald Trump won't have a legitimate basis for challenging the election results.
According to ABC News, Donald Trump is up in the polls for the first time since May. As of Tuesday morning, he is polling at 46 percent, while Hillary Clinton is coming in at 45 percent. What's more, if pollsters don't round up, Hillary Clinton is polling a mere 0.7 percent behind Trump.However, the United States doesn't elect presidents based on polls, nor is the winner of the election determined by the popular vote. Rather, in the U.S., presidents are elected by the electoral college. And so far, Hillary Clinton is dominating the electoral map in a virtually insurmountable way.
If Hillary Clinton wins next Tuesday's general election with 322 electoral votes as predicted by the Moody's model, she'll match President Obama's 2012 performance.
The Moody's model doesn't actually predict which candidate will win -- it predicts which political party will win. Indeed, it does so with overwhelming accuracy. Leading up to its prediction of a Hillary Clinton landslide victory, the Moody's model has a 100 percent success rate. It has accurately called every presidential election since it was created back in 1980.The model uses a variety of variables to help predict which candidate is most likely to win, both economic and political. Among the economic variables that have caused the model to predict a Hillary Clinton win are changes in personal income, gas prices, and housing prices. Some of the political variables factored into a predicted Hillary Clinton victory are voter fatigue and the political party of the sitting president.
Ironically, both of those political variables are working against Hillary Clinton, according to the Moody's model. Nevertheless, Clinton is predicted to not only win but to win big.
The Moody's model has been predicting a Hillary Clinton victory in the 2016 election for well over a year now, since July of 2015. However, the final installment of the model was released just this morning, and it was excellent news for Hillary Clinton supporters and Democrats in general. Even in the wake of flagging poll numbers and an email scandal that just won't die, Hillary Clinton is still predicted to win by the highly trusted and cited model.Not only that, Clinton is predicted to win the electoral college by a wide enough margin that even if the model is off by a few electoral votes, Hillary Clinton should still have this race in the bag.
"As much as economists would like to believe that economics have the final word in elections, in most states politics still matter more. Most states tend to vote consistently Democrat or Republican, regardless of whatever other forces might be at play."Despite the past accuracy of the Moody's model, economists who contribute to the eerily accurate election forecast tool have warned that it is simply a predictor of things to come, not a crystal ball. While a Hillary Clinton victory seems most likely (and even virtually guaranteed) based on the model's historical accuracy, an upset is always possible.
"Given the unusual nature of the 2016 election cycle to date, it is very possible that voters will react to changing economic and political conditions differently than they have in past election cycles, placing some risk in the model outcome, particularly state-by-state projections."
Possible, but not likely. Even though the 2016 election cycle is admittedly of an "unusual nature," the Moody's model seems to sync up with nearly every other recent electoral college election map, almost all of which predict an easy electoral victory for Hillary Clinton.
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