With seven days to go until Americans cast their ballots in the 2016 general election, Democratic presidential nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been able to hold on to a seemingly tenuous lead over Republican nominee and reality television star Donald J. Trump.
The Clinton-Trump lead currently reported by Real Clear Politics national poll averages featuring just the two candidates is 3.1 percent, up from recent-low levels near 2.5 percent observed late yesterday, as reported by the Inquisitr.
In more broad-based averages including latest polls, Clinton, Trump, Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein, and Libertarian Gary Johnson have each maintained their relative standings over recent weeks. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is backed by 45.6 percent of the electorate; Trump, 42.4 percent; Johnson, 4.9 percent; and Jill Stein, 2.3 percent.
Hillary Clinton has been able to sustain her margin over Trump in the wake of news that top Clinton-aide Huma Abedin’s estranged husband, former congressman Anthony Weiner, used a laptop containing emails related to Clinton to “sext” with a 15-year-old. Abedin is reported to be “missing” from public Clinton campaign events since FBI Director James Comey wrote a letter addressing the matter to Congress on Friday.
Presidential odds maker FiveThirtyEight has lowered its expectations for Hillary Clinton considerably over the past 24 hours. Currently, the site gives Clinton a 75.2 percent chance of an election win. Trump is given a 24.8 percent chance.
Early yesterday, those odds were stated: Clinton, 78.8 percent; Trump 21.1 percent, as reported by the Inquisitr. Further, FiveThirtyEight has lowered its view that the Democratic Party will regain control of the Senate, from 71.0 percent early yesterday to 64.4 percent currently. The Republicans are given a 35.6 percent chance of maintaining Senate control.
William Hill, a bookmaker in the United Kingdom where betting on the outcome of presidential elections is permitted, is currently quoting odds for a Hillary Clinton win that have gone from $6 to $3 paying $1 since October 22, as reported by the Inquisitr. The current larger percentage payout indicates increased uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as perceived by odds makers, which is determined in part by the beliefs and betting patterns of their customers.
Odds for a Donald Trump win have gone from paying $4 on a $1 bet to paying $5 on a $2 bet, showing a perception of an increased likelihood of a Trump win next week among odds-makers.
Overall, though they have been reduced in recent days, published odds continue to favor a Hillary Clinton presidency. The next closest name in overseas betting for next U.S. president is Bernie Sanders, for whom a $1 bet pays $66.
With the latest polls, Real Clear Politics currently lists nine “toss up” states: Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and Maine’s second congressional district.
Among the “toss up” states, FiveThirtyEight sees Hillary Clinton leading in Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and all of Maine, and Donald Trump leading in Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia.
In Real Clear Politics Clinton-Trump poll averages in each “toss up” state, Clinton leads in Nevada, 45.2 to 43.7; in Colorado, 44.0 to 40.0; in North Carolina, 47.1 to 44.1; and in Arizona, 43.3 to 42.7. Trump leads in Florida, 44.8 to 44.3 percent; in Georgia, 46.8 to 43.2; in Ohio, 45.8 to 44.5; in Iowa, 41.7 to 40.3; and in Maine’s second congressional district, 41.3 to 39.3.
“Clinton is performing worse than Obama in 10 of the 12 states that were generally considered swing states in 2012,” writes FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver with regard to the current race.
Silver states that the difference in performance between Obama and Clinton is “negligible” in Pennsylvania and Florida, but that the former Secretary of State is “underperforming” President Obama in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio; “substantially” in the final four.
On the flip side, Silver sees Clinton “considerably outperforming” Barack Obama’s 2012 showing in North Carolina and Virginia, but concludes that it may not be enough to compensate for losses elsewhere.
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