The 2016 general election polls suggest it may be too late for an “October Surprise.” FBI Director Comey’s letter to Republicans in Congress about the Clinton email investigation shouldn’t have any real impact on the outcome of the 2016 campaign. Not to mention, early voting results make it unlikely we’re going to see a Donald Trump presidency.
Across the election polling results, Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump by anywhere from five to 15 points nationally. And Clinton – in general – leads by much more in many of the all-important battleground states like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Clinton is even challenging Trump in red state strongholds like Georgia and Arizona.
General Election Polling Results
Despite the fact that Donald Trump and his campaign cronies keep referring to online polling conducted by Republican-leaning sites showing he’s in the lead, virtually all of the legitimate 2016 election polls show Hillary Clinton has a big lead nationally.
Moving from the general to the specific polls, the latest Pew Research national poll shows that in a two-person race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Clinton leads Trump by seven points, 50-43. The ABC News poll yesterday gives Clinton a six-point lead over Trump.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, CNN reports that Clinton leads Trump 47-38 points – or nine points – in a four person presidential race. This is extremely relevant, because we actually have a four-person race this year. Even if the third party candidates have absolutely no chance in the polls, they can still influence the outcome of the 2016 election.
Even more alarming for the Trump campaign, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll of early voting indicates that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by a whopping 15 points. Almost 20,000,000 Americans have already voted in the 2016 general election, and as reported by NPR, it’s expected that as many as 50 million people could vote early.
This makes it clear how difficult it would be for a last-minute “October Surprise” from WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, or FBI Director Comey to change the outcome.
Battleground States’ Election Polling Results
The general consensus in the 2016 election polls is that Hillary Clinton is pulling away or holding her own against Donald Trump in most of the battleground states. Hillary Clinton herself seems to believe that most people have already taken the Clinton “email scandal” into account in their decision.
The 2016 general election polls for North Carolina show Hillary Clinton maintaining her lead and even strengthening it. The most recent Quinnipiac poll in the swing state gives Clinton a four-point lead over Trump. The current North Carolina poll from Emerson has Clinton winning 48 to 45.
Friday’s Morning Call poll has Clinton beating Trump 45-39 in Pennsylvania. Yesterday’s 2016 election poll for Pennsylvania by Emerson gives Hillary a seven-point lead in that vital battleground state. At one point, the Trump campaign had fantasized about winning Pennsylvania, but that seems unlikely now.
In Florida election polls, things are looking no better for Donald Trump and his beleaguered campaign staff. All of the endless Trump scandals over the last few months – and particularly over the last few weeks – have taken their toll on Trump’s support. The fact that the University of North Florida election poll shows Trump behind by four points in a four-person race means he’s probably not going to win this key battleground state.
It should be noted that – statistically speaking – it would be virtually impossible for any Republican candidate running in the 2016 election to win the overall electoral college vote without also winning Florida.
It’s becoming clear that the 2016 general election polls are unlikely to shift from their current numbers in the short time left until election day. Even in the major battleground states, early voting may make it impossible for any accusations from Republicans – or Russian operatives – to change the narrative of this year’s presidential election.
[Featured Image by Spencer Platt/Getty Images]