Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton currently leads Republican nominee Donald Trump by 5.1 percent in national poll averages featuring just the two candidates, down from a recent peak of 7.1 percent one week ago, as reported by Real Clear Politics.
With the latest polls, Clinton, Trump, Green Party nominee Dr. Jill Stein, and Libertarian Gary Johnson have each held roughly the same levels of voter support over the past week. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton poll averages have each experienced minor bumps, less than one percent, in the first days of this week.
In national poll averages, Hillary Clinton has 48.3 percent of support, while Donald Trump is given 43.2 percent in polls featuring only the Democrat and Republican. Gary Johnson is seen with 6.0 percent of voter support and Dr. Jill Stein with 2.2 percent in polls tracked by Real Clear Politics where all four candidates are named.
Currently, Real Clear Politics is describing the election as a “toss up” in Maine’s second congressional district, Texas, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.
Election forecaster FiveThirtyEight currently puts Clinton ahead in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, and all of Maine. The elections analysts see Donald Trump leading in Texas and Georgia.
Overall, FiveThirtyEight gives the Democratic nominee an 85.0 percent chance of winning the November 8 election, down slightly from levels observed earlier this week by the Inquisitr. Donald Trump is given a 14.9 percent chance of taking the U.S. presidency.
Poll averages in 2016 toss-up battleground states, some of which are not seen as traditional swing states, are somewhat split. Trump leads Clinton in Iowa, 41.7 to 38.0 percent; in Texas, 43.6 to 38.8; in Georgia, 46.3 to 42.3; and in Ohio, 44.8 to 43.7. Clinton leads Trump in Nevada, 45.7 to 42.1 percent; in Arizona, 43.5 to 42; in Florida, 47.0 to 43.9; and in North Carolina, 45.8 to 43.8, as reported by Real Clear Politics.
Trump also leads Clinton in poll averages for Maine’s second congressional district, 41.7 to 37.0 percent.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democratic Party a 67.6 percent chance of regaining control of the U.S. Senate, down slightly from views published earlier this week. The GOP is currently seen with a 32.4 percent chance of maintaining its current Senate control.
In recent averages of polls, Clinton-Trump levels of voter support differ by as little as one percent in published IBD/TIPP results and as much as 12 percent with ABC News Tacking Polls. The current 5.1 percent lead falls midway between these more extreme data points.
Nate Silver with FiveThirtyEight has questioned what effect undecided voters may be having on the 2016 election. He describes both Clinton and Trump as benefiting from undecided voters, but only “slowly.” Silver estimates that as much as 15 percent of the U.S. population still hasn’t committed to casting their ballots for “Clinton or Trump,” while only five percent of voters hadn’t settled for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat President Barack Obama at this point in the 2012 election. Despite this difference, the influence of this undecided group may continue to be a factor for all four major candidates as election day 2016 approaches.
“Every new poll seems to provide support for one of two impressions of the race: one in which Hillary Clinton is pulling away toward a historic landslide, and another in which Clinton holds a lead but Donald Trump remains on the fringes of contention,” Silver says of the lastest polls, Clinton, Trump, and their relative positions. “On the whole, the data released over the past several days suggests that the race may have tightened just the slightest bit.”
Reactions to earnings in an environment of increased perception of certainty of a November Hillary Clinton win in markets for the shares of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) have been markedly positive, as previously featured by the Inquisitr. Shares of each pulled back marginally in the first two trading sessions of the week while holding the majority of recent gains.
Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) shares have also been strong and trade near all-time highs. The social network is expected to report earnings on Wednesday, November 2, after the 4 p.m market close.
Yesterday, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported financial results that disappointed after hours traders who sent the stock down $3.99 or 3.4 percent. Apple beat the street consensus earnings per share estimate of $1.66, by $0.01. Hoping for a bigger beat, or finding some other flaw in the results, sellers of AAPL stock overtook buyers last night. Traders will be watching to see if AAPL shares can cut their losses and take part in the seeming Hillary Clinton rally along with PayPal, Netflix, Facebook, and other names.
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