What are the chances of Donald Trump winning the 2016 U.S. presidential elections? If you ask him, he’ll tell you that he’s still got a good chance of beating Hillary Clinton, even if most statistics in the run up to the elections suggest otherwise.
Although most polls show Trump trailing Democratic nominee Clinton with just two weeks before the elections, the Republican nominee nonetheless remains confident in his chances of winning it all come November 8. Speaking in Florida on Monday, the real estate developer-turned presidential candidate told supporters that he’s “actually winning” based on some leading polls. A report from CNN included some of the main takeaways from Trump’s Florida speech.
“The Investors (Business) Daily (IBD/TIPP) poll, which was the single most accurate poll for the last three cycles. The last three presidential races. We’re up. We just went up. We were down three. We were down five. We’re now two up in Rasmussen. (The results) just came out this morning. We’re up in another couple of polls.”
Despite his confident declarations, CNN believes the numbers cited don’t necessarily point to Donald Trump winning at this point of the election run-up. Although the IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen polls are two of the more recognizable national polls, CNN pointed out that the former poll “does not disclose critical pieces” of its mechanics, while the latter one utilizes a blended online/telephone system that doesn’t involve live interviewers.
Based on CNN‘s own numbers, Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Trump, with its Poll of Polls showing the Democratic candidate up by eight points. Further, a new poll from ABC News and the Washington Post has Clinton leading by an even bigger margin, as she leads Trump by an impressive 12 points. But that’s still not stopping Donald Trump from saying he’s winning in several swing states, including Iowa and Ohio. He also said that his campaign is “doing great” in North Carolina and Florida, and that he expects to “win big” in the latter state.
Speaking to CNN‘s Wolf Blitzer, Trump campaign senior communications adviser Jason Miller echoed his boss’ declarations, though delved into more specifics on how well Trump is doing in the states he mentioned.
“He’s behind in Pennsylvania, slightly,” Miller told Blitzer.
“He’s behind slightly in Michigan. There’s these blue states Mr. Trump is putting into play where we get zero credit for doing so. We’re leading in places like Iowa, which has been blue the last couple of cycles. We’re leading in Ohio. We’re probably a tied race in North Carolina. We might be slightly ahead there. In Florida, I believe we’re within the margin in that state. We’re ahead with absentees at this moment.”
The ABC News/Washington Post poll also shows an interesting dynamic that’s developed since Trump’s controversial hot-mic leak from earlier in the month, where he allegedly bragged in 2005 about using his status and popularity to take advantage of women. According to Yahoo News, Clinton was shown to be leading Trump by 20 points among female voters on the ABC/Post survey, though both male and female voters were less supportive of the controversial Republican candidate following the hot-mic issue.
Even with those figures in mind, Donald Trump still says he’s winning the female vote over. In his Florida speech, he said that national polls, in general, have been “very inaccurate” when it comes to women voters. And while he seemed to suggest that his campaign is “doing better with women,” he did tweak his words slightly soon after, adding that he’s “setting records” with male voters, but that he also wants to set campaign records with female voters as well.
As both Democratic and Republican campaigns reach their homestretch, this might not be the last claim we’ll hear of Donald Trump winning national polls. But regardless of who’s ahead of the polls and who isn’t at any given moment, it will all come down to one day, and one day alone — election day on November 8.
[Featured Image by Joe Raedle/Getty Images]