As reported by ABC News, Donald Trump’s campaign has reached the point where the Trump Texas polls confirm Hillary Clinton could – just barely – pull out a win in Texas and turned the Lone Star State blue. Some recent polls results in Texas show Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by only 1-3 points.
As noted by NBC News, the last time a Democratic presidential candidate won in Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976. But it’s important to keep in mind that Democrats do still have a strong presence in Texas, particularly in Austin. And it was only just over 20 years ago that the governor of Texas, Ann Richards, was a Democrat.
Houston, we've got a problem: Trump could cost Republicans Texas, poll finds https://t.co/GwAzZPw9n5— Guardian news (@guardiannews) October 22, 2016
What It Means for Trump
Texas polls obviously still have Donald Trump in the lead, but this lead in many of the election polls is minuscule compared to what a Republican presidential candidate would normally expect to have in Texas – particularly against Hillary Clinton, who is hated by many Texas Republicans.
How did the Donald Trump Texas polls turn so disastrous for Republicans that Texas has become a battleground state? Like any other state of the union, Texas is influenced by the same things influencing overall national polling trends.
But for a Democrat like Hillary Clinton to have a chance in Texas polls, the Democratic candidate has to have a massive lead in the national polls. According to a recent ABC News poll, Hillary Clinton is currently 12 points ahead of Donald Trump nationally among likely voters. Naturally, this is reflected in the Trump Texas polls.
Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Trump and has reached 50 per cent support nationally among likely votershttps://t.co/BPUFCR1D2T— Hillary In Pictures (@HillaryPix) October 24, 2016
The most recent poll taken in Texas — showing Hillary Clinton within three points of Donald Trump — is actually within the margin of error of this poll. This means — according to this poll — Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are essentially tied in Texas.
Reasons for Trump Texas Polls
Aside from how the astonishing drop in Donald Trump’s national poll numbers could impact Trump and Clinton polling numbers in Texas, there are additional reasons why Trump’s Texas poll numbers might be dropping.
For one thing, Texas is now almost 40 percent Hispanic. Perhaps not surprisingly, 65 percent of Hispanics nationwide support Hillary Clinton. Only 17 percent support Donald Trump. That’s a deep hole for the Trump campaign to dig out of.
In fact, given the things Trump has said over the last year about Mexicans — and Hispanics in general — it’s amazing he’s hitting even 17 percent among Hispanics. But perhaps that 17 percent are principally anti-Castro Republican Hispanics who haven’t yet heard about Donald Trump doing business with Castro during the 90s.
WI GOP(R)Ryan Still Supports - Report: GOP(R)Trump violated CUBA EMBARGO law by doing business in Cuba https://t.co/Ca17UTkiHe— dwayne cobb (@dwaynecobb) October 21, 2016
The latest YouGov/CBS News battleground states poll backs up the idea Hillary Clinton is only three points behind Trump in Texas, and one of the likeliest explanations for this remarkably close race in the Lone Star State is that Hispanics are completely opposed to Donald Trump’s draconian measures for dealing with illegal immigrants, from mass deportations to wall building along the Mexican border.
Another reason why Texas may be shifting more Democratic relates to another kind of migration. This is the migration of college-educated liberal Democrats moving to Texas from other states to find work. With the Texas economy doing fairly well, it’s almost inevitable this would happen. Similar demographic shifts are happening in other Southern states, such as North Carolina.
The Trump Texas polls don’t necessarily mean that Hillary Clinton is going to win in Texas, but it does mean she has a better shot of doing so than any Democratic presidential candidate has had in decades. There are a lot of factors that have gone into making this possible in the 2016 election year, but Donald Trump’s actions, words and perceived character have more to do with it than anything else.
[Featured Image by Tom Pennington/Getty Images]