While many in the GOP are dropping Donald Trump like a hot potato following the release of a hot mic recording in which Trump makes aggressive and inappropriate comments about women, many Republicans seem to be overlooking one key factor in this stage of the presidential race. Trump is not replaceable, and changing the ticket now would spell certain doom for the GOP.
It has been noted that the only way for the GOP to change their nomination is for Trump to step down on his own or for him to die. Trump has made it abundantly clear that he plans to ride the election out until the end. However, even if the business mogul decided to step down as the nominee, replacing Trump with a Pence/Carson ticket would ensure a Hillary Clinton victory.
The media and establishment want me out of the race so badly – I WILL NEVER DROP OUT OF THE RACE, WILL NEVER LET MY SUPPORTERS DOWN! #MAGA
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 8, 2016
Why would it be impossible for the Republicans to pull out a victory with a seemingly more appealing Pence/Carson ticket? The loss would be inevitable due to the fact that early voting in key battleground states has already begun. The Daily Mail notes that if Trump steps down and Pence takes his spot, the ballots would not change in key battlegrounds states such as Florida and South Carolina. In fact, over 34,000 Republican voters have already cast their ballots via early voting ballots.
“In the extremely unlikely case that Trump did choose to stand down, then Pence or another name could technically go on the ballot in some states. But not in key battleground states like North Carolina and Florida where early voting has already begun and the ballots have already been printed. More than 34,000 Republican voters have already cast their ballots.”
Why did a decade-old three-minute video provoke a sudden revolt by GOP officials against their nominee? https://t.co/YWOqMREuC6
— NYT Politics (@nytpolitics) October 9, 2016
Therefore, if Trump steps down from the presidential running, it would be nearly impossible for Pence to have enough support to secure enough votes to win the election. Instead, the change would make a victory for Clinton a whole lot easier.
— Steve Stuglin (@sstuglin) October 9, 2016
If Republicans want a chance at winning the presidency, their only shot is Trump. With that understanding, it seems as though the GOP is in a lose/lose situation. If the Republicans do not disavow Trump’s statements they potentially harm their chances of securing spots in the Senate and House. However, if they disavow Trump and pull their support for the candidate, they risk handing the presidency over to Clinton.
It’s up to Trump to try and salvage his campaign during tonight’s debate https://t.co/6I5uUp5RNe
— New York Post (@nypost) October 9, 2016
Fortunately for the GOP, a Morning Consult/Politico poll reveals that just 12 percent of Republican voters believe Trump should drop out following the offensive video. The poll revealed that this would amount to just a one point drop in national polling following the potentially devastating video leak.
“Only 12 percent of Republicans say Trump should drop out of the race. Overall support for Donald Trump dropped just one point in a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll taken immediately after the 2005 Access Hollywoodvideo leaked.”
Therefore, it seems that Republicans may be able to secretly have their cake and eat it too by disavowing the business mogul’s offensive statements while still maintaining their voter base throughout the election.
Tremendous support (except for some Republican “leadership”). Thank you.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2016
What do you think of Donald Trump’s offensive statements about women? Do you believe the Access Hollywood video will prove too damaging to overcome before the November election? What do you think is the best move for Republicans given the situation regarding ballot access issues that would present if a new nominee was selected?
[Featured Image via Evan Vucci/AP Photo]