Most presidential nominees see a little bounce in their numbers, voters, and enthusiasm, post their national conventions that launch the general election. Donald Trump appears to be the exception to the rule. His campaign does not reflect any of these bounces, and in fact, resembles more of a long series of many dropped balls.
Worse, Time Magazine reported on August 11 that, because of that, Donald Trump has been called out by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. In a telephone call last week, RNC Chairman reportedly issued a warning to Trump that sounded a lot like, “Stop. Just stop.” And Priebus isn’t the only GOP saying that to Donald Trump at this time.
Donald Trump is not just losing numbers and enthusiasm, he’s losing critical voters. CNN just published a list of Republicans this week that have publicly stated that they will not vote for Donald Trump. Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine is the most recent Republican to say, “I can not support Trump,” citing his temperament and lack of discipline as key reasons.
The Trump temperament catastrophe has reached the point where the Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus gave a warning to Donald Trump that was a desperately needed wakeup call. Time Magazine reported on August 11 that Priebus recently called Donald Trump and asked him to turn things around.
It was reportedly brought to Trump’s attention that his campaign was “headed toward failure,” and that something needed to change. Time Magazine says it was also suggested by Priebus that had Trump vacationed and dropped off the planet since the convention, his campaign might see better numbers than it does today.
It is apparently not the first time that the RNC chair has tried to give Donald Trump a reality check. Whether or not Trump wins the Oval Office is not the only concern of the GOP at this time.
Business Insider reports that the Trump temperament is threatening all Republicans that are currently in the race. Voters that abandon Trump may get so upset that the Republicans aren’t doing anything about his temperament, that they don’t vote any Republican into any office.
The Trump problem could impact every level of lawmaking. And that’s why the GOP is so upset. Not only could the GOP lose the White House, which is how it is looking at this time, but they could also lose critical law making seats in the senate, the house, and key governors.
Matt Mackowiak, the founder of the Potomac Strategy Group, has not been shy about his feelings about Donald Trump. Business Insider reports Mackowiak says, the GOP is freaking out. “Panic” is the word Mackowiak used.
Why? The path to 270 is getting easier for Hillary Clinton, but that’s only part of the problem. In addition to losing key house, senate, and governor seats, entire states that once leaned red could go to Hillary Clinton. This is exactly what is happening.
Every time Donald Trump talks, the path to 270 gets that much easier for Hillary Clinton. And the path gets easier for every other Democrat running for office. This is precisely why Trump was issued a warning.
Matt Mackowiak didn’t stop there. He went on a 20 statement tweet storm yesterday to spell out exactly what Donald Trump needs to do.
The message sounded a lot like, “stop. It’s not funny anymore.” Mackowiak is a frequent contributor for The Hill, and published a column expressing his “breaking point” with Donald Trump, suggesting his antics are so bad, they could make the GOP extinct.
But as Donald Trump will tell you, “Look how I did in the primaries! America loves me!”
Some Americans might. But not the important ones, as it seems by the poll numbers and electoral map numbers this week. How does a presidential nominee sail through so many primaries on top, get the nomination, and then drop with the sorry little thump of a deflated ball?
Chris Cillizza, political pundit for The Fix, recently tweeted that the Trump downfall can be explained in two words: The Khans.
The numbers with the electoral map seem to reflect this. Entire states have switched overnight since “The Khans.” Just this week, Real Clear Politics electoral map had Hillary Clinton at 246 probable electoral college votes, only 24 away from the needed 270 to win the Oval Office. Donald Trump was sitting at 154.
Overnight, swing state Wisconsin began to lean toward Hillary Clinton, sending 10 possible electoral college votes her way. This puts her at 256 now on the Real Clear Politics electoral college map, only 14 away from the coveted 270. Real Clear Politics has 128 electoral college votes currently listed as “toss-ups.”
Those are Arizona with 11 electoral college votes, Florida with 29, Georgia with 16, Iowa with six, Michigan with 16, Missouri with 10, Nevada with six, North Carolina with 15, Ohio with 18, and Maine with one. As it stands right now, if the numbers on this projection are accurate, and the votes go this way, Hillary Clinton only needs one of these big states, or two of the smaller ones.
She doesn’t even need to win Florida or Ohio. North Carolina would do it. Michigan would do it. Of course Florida and Ohio would be nice, and, may just go her way after Trump’s warning from the RNC chair. That certainly doesn’t hurt her chances.
In this scenario, Hillary only needs one or two of the toss up states to win. If she wins Florida alone, she wins. Nate Silver of Project 538 is projecting that she has a 78.9 percent chance of winning Florida.
Nate Silver has accurately predicted many elections with his polling model. He is a statistician that likes to crunch numbers for Major League baseball and elections. He’s also the Editor-in-Chief of the Five Thirty Eight blog for ESPN.
His election prediction success is renowned in political circles. In the 2008 election, he correctly predicted the outcomes of 49 of 50 States, landing him the title of one of the world’s 100 “Most Influential People” by Time Magazine in 2009. In 2012, he accurately predicted 50 for 50 states.
When Nate Silver talks electoral maps, people listen. Just prior to the Republican National Convention he predicted Donald Trump as the winner of the race, based on pre-convention polling data and successful primary wins. Since then, he has made a 180 degree switch on who he thinks has the best shot right now.
He currently has Hillary Clinton as ahead by eight points in the national polls. His electoral map of how that looks like if she continues at this pace, and Donald Trump continues at his, is not pretty for Donald Trump. The map looks very blue.
Trump's floor in the Electoral College is low because his biggest underperformance is in traditionally red states: pic.twitter.com/eE8Adr3qAp— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2016
Nate Silver’s numbers are surprisingly detailed in his predictions today, which were what would it look like if Hillary Clinton has a landslide win. If she wins Ohio and Michigan, but not Florida, she wins. Five-thirty-eight gives her a 76.5 percent chance at winning Ohio and a 92.6 percent chance of taking Michigan, and a 92.2 percent chance of winning Wisconsin.
If she wins Michigan and Wisconsin, which is the way these states are leaning now, but doesn’t get Florida or Ohio, she still wins. Donald Trump needs to win eight or nine of those toss up states to win the election, and has less than a 25 percent chance of winning most of them. Hillary Clinton’s path to 270 is just much easier than Donald’s, and that was the message in the warning to Trump this week.
If you are a betting person, then putting money on Donald Trump is a very big gamble. Actor George Takei says a vote for Donald Trump is a very big gamble in itself. The Latino vote is one vote that both sides of the aisle are watching right now. With Donald Trump’s racist remarks earlier this year, not many are expecting him to take the Latino vote.
This means that states with large Latino populations, like Arizona and Nevada, historically that have gone red, have a very strong possibility of going to Hillary Clinton. Nate Silver’s current projections are that Hillary Clinton has a 77.5 percent chance of winning Nevada.
George Takei has offered his own warning about Donald Trump to the Latino population. In the video here, he spells out this warning, speaking in Spanish with English subtitles, on the “real and terrible consequences” if Donald Trump is president.
That Latino vote may not be a problem at all if Silver’s numbers pan out on election day. On Nate Silver’s model, the odds for Donald Trump are literally slim-to-none. He did have a very small post convention bounce, as was to be expected.
What the GOP is saying now is what he should have done with that is take that momentum, and try and convince the maybes. The “maybe” voters still existed at that point. Politicians call that, “staying on message.” But with 87 days to go, most pundits are saying that turning the polls around is not just difficult, but unlikely for Donald Trump.
Donald Trump has got some work to do if he wants to win. A lot of work. And by work, the GOP means to stop hinting at assassinating your opponent, stop waging Twitter wars, and get on message.
If not, the warning to Trump is clear: he doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in Florida.
Do you think there is any shot at all for Donald Trump at this point?
[Photo by Evan Vucci/AP Images]