Hillary Clinton polls show the Democratic presidential nominee’s post-convention bounce has turned into a surge.
According to a trio of polls released Thursday, Clinton has taken big leads over GOP contender Donald Trump in the battleground states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, shoring up her favorable ratings with voters, while Trump is still burdened by negative ratings and deep divisions within the Republican party.
A WBUR survey in New Hampshire shows Clinton has jumped ahead of Trump by 15 points in the state. The poll, conducted between July 29 and August 1, has Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent among 609 likely New Hampshire voters with third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in the mix. Clinton is trouncing Trump 51 percent to 34 percent in a head-to-head match up.
Steve Koczela, president of MassINC Polling Group, which conducted WBUR’s poll, explains the biggest reason Hillary Clinton polls are surging is that Bernie Sanders supporters are uniting around her despite their contentious behavior at the Democratic National Convention.
“After all the hand-wringing about whether Bernie Sanders supporters would end up supporting Hillary Clinton, she’s now getting 86 percent of the Democratic vote.”
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is backed by only 63 percent of Republicans in New Hampshire.
According to the WBUR poll, both Clinton and Trump still struggle from high unfavorable ratings, but Clinton is rallying, while Trump is flailing. An even number of New Hampshire voters — 45 percent and 45 percent — now view Clinton favorably versus unfavorably. In May, 58 percent viewed Clinton unfavorably, compared with 35 percent who had a positive view of her. However, 60 percent of New Hampshire voters still hold negative views on Trump, versus 29 percent who view him favorably. This is slightly worse than Trump’s numbers in May, when he held a 58 percent to 33 percent unfavorable/favorable rating. The margin of error for the poll is plus/minus 4 points.
In Pennsylvania, a new Hillary Clinton poll shows her leading Trump by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, among the state’s likely voters. According to the survey, conducted by Franklin and Marshall College from July 29 through August 1, 78 percent of registered Democrats back Clinton, while 69 percent of registered Republicans support Trump.
The poll indicates the Democratic National Convention was a boon for Clinton, with 62 percent of respondents who watched the event saying they were more likely to vote for her. However, only 40 percent who watched the Republican National Convention said they were more likely to vote for Trump. Like in New Hampshire, both candidates still suffer from high unfavorable ratings in the Rust Belt state, but, again, Clinton holds the advantage. Forty-seven percent of Pennsylvania voters surveyed say they view Clinton positively, while 49 percent view her negatively. For Trump, the numbers are 33 percent favorable to 62 percent unfavorable. The poll’s margin of error is plus/minus 6.3 points.
In Michigan, Hillary Clinton is also pulling ahead. A new Detroit News/WDIV poll shows likely Michigan voters prefer Clinton to Trump by 9 points, 41 percent to 32 percent, when third-party candidates Johnson and Stein are included. Clinton is ahead by only 7 points in a head-to-head contest with Trump.
While Clinton’s lead in Michigan isn’t quite as big as in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, Richard Czuba, president of polling firm Glengariff Group Inc., said the Democratic nominee holds a “shocking” leading in the west and southwest areas of the state, which normally vote Republican.
“[Trump] is sitting in the cellar right now, and they’re going to have to do something to dramatically turn this around. If I were a Republican running on this ticket right now, I’d be beyond nervous.”
According to the survey, which was conducted between July 30 and Aug. 1, Hillary Clinton polls 5 points ahead of Trump in west Michigan and 6 points ahead in southwest Michigan. Those areas went for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the state’s March 8 primary.
Trump’s biggest problem in Michigan appears to be his lack of qualifications. A whopping 61.2 percent of those surveyed said the GOP nominee is unqualified to be president, compared to 32.7 percent who believe he is qualified. Meanwhile, 57 percent of Michigan voters believe Clinton is qualified for the country’s top job, versus 38.7 percent who believe she is not. The poll’s margin of error is plus/minus 4 points.
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