Captain America: Civil War had an impossible-to-replicate opening weekend, so most industry analysts are now anticipating a second weekend drop, but it isn’t clear just how far down the number will go.
After premiering to a jaw-dropping $200 million overseas, it closed its first week in worldwide release with close to $700 million.
Since that time, the film has risen to $788 million in overall global box office on a budget of $250 million, the same as Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice, which is pretty much finished with its theatrical run, ending at around $870 million.
In Batman V Superman‘s second week, the Zack Snyder-directed film dropped 70 percent overall and never recovered.
Its first weekend saw it with a global take of $561 million, so the remaining $309 million has come after more than a month of daily and weekend box office totals.
Coincidentally, it lays claim to one of the largest second week drops in the history of superhero films. Since it is now in direct competition with Captain America: Civil War, many are anticipating that this second weekend for Cap will offer a clear indication of which film is more successful.
If Captain America: Civil War holds up well, then the chances of it hitting $1 billion are very good. In that case, Marvel will be the clear box office winner.
It has already beaten DC/Warner’s film with critics, scoring an 89 percent via the critic aggregator site Rotten Tomatoes compared to BvS‘s 27 percent, but amid allegations that Disney paid off critics (via the Daily Dot) for those excellent reviews, the sustained performance of Civil War will offer a truly unbiased barometer of where audience allegiances lie.
So just what can box office watchers expect from Captain America: Civil War in its second weekend?
Perhaps the best place to start is to go back to the last Marvel film — especially the last Captain America film — that was this well-reviewed. That honor goes to Captain America: The Winter Soldier from 2014.
At present, both films hold an 89 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. The release schedule isn’t quite the same, but not off by much. The following chart details the first four weekends of release, where the previous film did most of its business.
As you can see, CA:TWS fell off just 56 percent in U.S. box office in its second weekend. By using that same logic for Captain America: Civil War, viewers might be able to expect a $77.686 million second weekend in the U.S.
Foreign totals get trickier since Box Office Mojo only keeps up with tallies by market without the weekend-to-weekend breakdown.
However, utilizing the percentage takes from CA:TWS and extrapolating that for CA:CW, it appears that 63.6 percent of the previous film’s business came from overseas.
Assuming Captain America: Civil War follows a similar pattern, one can expect a domestic tally of $335.527 million after four weekends and around $550 million in foreign box office.
With international receipts for Captain America: Civil War accounting for 71.7 percent of overall gross currently — higher than it was for CA:TWS — overalls could exceed $900 million by the end of Civil War‘s first month.
The good news for Marvel and Disney in their hope of hitting $1 billion is this.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier was such a success with audiences that it did solid long-tail business and stayed in theaters for 21 weekends before theaters finally pulled the plug.
This has not been the case for BvS, which is pretty much out of gas after its seventh weekend.
Since these two latest Captain America films are getting similar reactions, it would not be unusual to see Captain America: Civil War be around for the same period of time.
But what do you think, readers?
Care to venture any guesses as to how weekend number two will go? Sound off in the comments section!
[Image via Captain America: Civil War screen grab]