Hillary Clinton is poised for a major victory when Oregon Democrats go to the polls next week, a new survey has claimed.
Analysts have placed Clinton 15 points ahead of party rival Bernie Sanders in the run up to Tuesday’s vote – despite the Vermont Senator generating huge crowds at rallies across the state.
According to experts at DHM Research, which conducted the poll for Oregon Public Broadcasting and FOX12 Oregon (KPTV/Portland), Clinton currently commands a resounding lead over Sanders among Oregon Democrats over the age of 45. That said, Clinton’s opponent is expected to secure the youth vote with virtual ease.
DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Democratic Party voters last week in order to calculate the results of Oregon’s first major primary poll.
The results suggest Clinton is performing far better than her rival among those who vote more frequently – as well as those who have already returned their ballots.
That being said, Tuesday’s primary may be hit by a large unknown in the form of an influx of freshly registered Oregon Democrats. Between January and April, 140,000 Oregon voters are said to have changed their party affiliations – with an estimated 90,000 having switching to the Democratic Party.
Bearing that in mind, this week’s poll also used a “high turnout” model in order to account for such variables. This model calculates results under the assumption that younger voters will turn out at a similar rate to older voters. It also takes into consideration that new and infrequent voters may hit the polls at historic levels.
When factoring young and infrequent voters into the equation, Sanders closed the gap on Clinton. Yet the former Secretary of State still finished in the lead with a projected 45 percent of the vote. Sanders was forecasted to bring in 38 percent.
Although outspoken real estate magnate Donald Trump has all but secured the GOP ticket, his fallen Republican opponents are still expected to pick up votes in Oregon’s Republican primary.
Both Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich have suspended their presidential campaigns, but their names are still technically on the primary ballot in Oregon.
As a result, pollsters found that 14 percent of voters said they would be supporting Cruz – with another 14 percent having pledged to vote for Kasich.
Presumed nominee Trump is expected to bring in 45 percent of the Republican vote.
Moving forward to the probable general election contest between Donald Trump and Democratic Party front-runner Hillary Clinton, state pollsters liked Clinton by a margin of 11 points. She would be expected to emerge with 43 percent of the vote in Oregon, compared to Trump’s projected 32 percent.
Clinton also maintains a far higher level of support within her own party than Trump. An estimated 79 percent of Democrats surveyed said they would be supporting Clinton – while just 66 percent of Republicans said they planned to vote for Trump.
The former Secretary of State enjoys a substantial lead over Trump among female voters. This week’s poll found that women are almost twice as likely to vote for Clinton. Men are evenly split between Clinton and Trump, while voters over the age of 65 generally prefer Clinton by a margin of over 15 percent.
When asked why they planned on voting for a certain candidate in November’s hypothetical match-up between Clinton and Trump, pollsters received a set of mixed motives.
A majority of Clinton supporters said they planned to vote for her because they favored her policies – not because they disliked Trump. By contrast, 52 percent of Trump supporters surveyed said they planned to vote for the reality television star solely because they opposed Clinton.
[Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images]