Although there are still no 2016 Oregon primary polls for the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders supporters are confident that their candidate will win the Pacific Northwestern state by a landslide.
UPDATE: Oregon Public Broadcasting and the local Fox affiliate have released a primary poll of 304 likely Democratic voters that indicates a strong win for Hillary Clinton. The survey calls her taking 48 percent of the vote to his 33 percent — a full 15 percentage point advantage.
With 61 delegates and 13 superdelegates on the table, the Oregon primary will have some of the most closely watched polls of the remaining Democratic primary races, wrote The Green Papers. Only New Jersey and California have more.
Absent polls to look at predicting the Oregon primary can be done by focusing on what the race has in common with its neighbors — specifically Washington state. On March 26, Bernie won that caucus by one of his biggest margins of the entire election season: Sanders trounced Hillary Clinton with nearly 73 percent of the vote to her 27 percent.
Oregon Primary Indicators, Sans Polls
Similar to the Oregon primary, Washington also had no poll information leading into its own caucus; but based on the state’s demographics and leftist tendencies, many were already sure that Bernie would be walking away with the race. After all, the majority of the state’s representatives, at both the local and national level, are Democrats.
Like Washington, Oregon also polls blue in a big way when it comes to selecting its congressmen and congresswomen. Both of Oregon’s national senators are Democrats, as are four of its five House representatives. At the state level, Democrats hold the majority in both the house and the senate.
Demographically, the Oregon primary also seems to sway in the direction of Washington’s polls. Both states are made up of more than 80 percent white voters. In fact, Oregon’s Asian community is actually larger than its African-American community — making up 4.3 percent of the population as opposed to 2 percent for blacks. White people account for 87.9 percent of Oregonians, according to 2014 U.S. Census data — which is almost a full 10 percentage points higher than in Washington. This trend in Oregon isn’t great news for Hillary, who has done best against Sanders in states with large Latino and African-American communities.
The comparisons between the two states don’t stop there. Oregon’s strongly liberal tendencies are also reflected in its progressive responses to hot-button issues like marijuana legalization. It is one of just four states, along with Washington, where voters headed to the polls to fully legalize both recreational and medical marijuana.
Alternatively, there a few ways that the Oregon primary differs from Washington that don’t favor Bernie. First of all, Democrats will be voting by mail in the state as opposed to the caucus process where Bernie has tended to perform better.
Secondly, the Oregon primary is closed off to only those who have registered to vote Democrat. In Washington, voters could head to the polls to vote as long as they were not registered with another major party. Of course, it’s important to note that a whopping 110,000 Oregonians registered with a political party in the lead-up to next Tuesday. Around 84,000 of them will be voting Democrat, reported The Oregonian.
Republican Oregon Presidential Primary Polls
Although the Republican race has screeched to halt with Donald Trump taking his place as the presumptive nominee after John Kasich and Ted Cruz both dropped out earlier this week, some Oregon Republicans will still head to the polls to make their voice heard. With many uncertain over how the Republican convention will play out in July, those against a Trump nomination are hoping that he will shed as many delegates as possible.
Unlike the Democratic race, however, there is a poll available for the Oregon Republican primary. At the end of April, Hoffman Research released a survey of a substantial 555 likely voters that predicted Donald walking away with 43 percent of the vote — nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Ted Cruz.
Despite the lack of 2016 Oregon primary polls, do you think the Democratic race will sway in the favor of Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton?
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