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San Andreas Fault Is ‘Locked And Loaded,’ Earthquake Researchers Say

By Tara Dodrill
Published on: 05:15 PST, May 5, 2016

The San Andreas fault line is “locked, loaded, and ready to roll,” according to a new report by scientists at the National Earthquake Conference in Long Beach, California. The fault line is not just the longest in the state, but it has often been regarded as the most dangerous.

San Andreas is long overdue for a massive earthquake, researchers contend. The last time a big earthquake occurred on the southern California fault line was in 1857, long before the area was so densely inhabited and was home to massive buildings, ABC News 7 notes. If the “big one” did hit on the fault line, some researchers feel it would nearly demolish everything within 50 to 100 miles of Los Angeles and Palm Springs.

During the 1857 San Andrea 7.9-magnitude earthquake, the land cracked, broke, and ruptured on the 185-mile stretch between the Los Angeles region around the San Gabriel Mountains and Monterey County.

In addition to the Los Angeles portion of the San Andreas fault, other areas of the line are also reportedly way overdue for another massive earthquake, the Daily Mail reports. The Cajon Pass region in San Bernardino County has not exhibited any significant movement since the 1812 earthquake. The Salton Sea portion of the California fault line has also been primarily dormant since the late 1600s.

“The springs on the San Andreas system have been wound very, very tight. And the southern San Andreas fault, in particular, looks like it’s locked, loaded and ready to go,” Thomas Jordan of the Southern California Earthquake Center said.

Stress has been building up along the San Andreas for more than 100 years, earthquake researchers are warning. The researchers feel the Pacific plate, which is moving along the northwestern region of the North American plate, should move about 16 feet every century to release stress, but the longest fault line in California has not adjusted the way scientists feel it should.

The Southern California Earthquake Center created a San Andreas earthquake simulation, which revealed how much of a broad impact shaking from an 8.0-magnitude event along the fault line would have on the region. The Northridge earthquake that occurred along a different California fault line in 1994 was considered to be a major earthquake, but it would be deemed a minor event compared to tremors that could occur one day very soon on the San Andreas, researchers said.

Scientists decided to issue disaster warnings now to enable the government, businesses, and citizens to prepare to survive such a monumental natural disaster. In anticipation of an 8.0-magnitude earthquake, officials in Los Angeles enhanced the aqueduct and telecommunications system in the city and reinforced aging concrete buildings.

A U.S. Geological Survey report published in 2008 revealed a 7.8-magnitude earthquake could likely result in the deaths of 1,800 citizens, leave 50,000 people injured, and spark approximately $200 billion in damages. A substantial earthquake along the San Andreas could devastate the Coachella Valley region in mere minutes. The intense shaking that could result might also trap waves inside the east Los Angeles area.

Earlier this year, some geophysicists said if a massive and overdue earthquake hit the southern region of California, both the carnage and damage could be far worse than expected. Some reports have anticipated a death toll of up to 14,000 people.

“Looking at old earthquakes in general is really a good way to figure out what faults are capable of doing,” Dr. Julian Lozos, a California State University assistant geophysics professor, said.

If Dr. Lozos’ predictions are accurate, an 8.0-magnitude San Andreas earthquake could coincide with a massive earthquake on the nearby San Jacinto fault line. The second fault line runs through a far more densely populated urban area. The professor also believes a similar scenario occurred in 1812 near where San Diego and San Buenaventura now stand.

[Image by Shutterstock.com]

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