Polling data for the Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz GOP primary matchup in Indiana seems to be all over the place.
According to a CNN report, however, private polling suggests that the Ted Cruz campaign is in danger of suffering a collapse in the Hoosier state.
Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee and consistent front-runner, would appear to have the momentum, coming off of landslide primary wins in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
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Texas Senator Ted Cruz named business executive and former GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina his running mate and received a relatively lukewarm endorsement yesterday from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. The Gateway Pundit has reported on several occasions that the Texas Senator’s rallies in Indiana have allegedly been poorly attended, however, while Trump gets huge crowds anywhere he goes across the country.
A survey by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana politics claimed that Cruz enjoys a double-digit lead over the New York real estate mogul for Tuesday’s primary. In contrast, the American Research Group found that Trump, instead, holds a nine-percent advantage in Indiana. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in third place.
According to the latest Real Clear Politics average, Trump leads Cruz by just 2.3 percent among voters planning to cast a ballot in Tuesday’s winner-take-all primary in Indiana.
[Added: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll gives Trump a 15-point lead over Cruz, 49 percent to 34 percent, with Kasich at 13.]
Politics can change rapidly, but yesterday, CNN offered this assessment of Ted Cruz’s chances in Indiana allegedly based on inside information.
“But earlier in the week, Cruz allies and people close to the campaign described a budding sense of gloom, with internal polls diving as Trump mounted even stronger than expected showings in his native northeast. In Indiana, which Cruz backers once believed they were favored to win after his strong defeat of Trump in Wisconsin, Cruz’s numbers have fallen precipitously: Once leading, Cruz now trails in the state by eight to 10 points, according to a person who has seen the numbers, with Trump over the 40% mark. Cruz’s campaign did not respond when asked about those figures.”
Also, the tally differs depending on who’s counting and the methodology used. Donald Trump has approximately 1,000 delegates to the RNC convention, with 1,237 need to officially secure the nomination as the GOP presidential standard-bearer in the November 2016 general election.
According to the New York Times, Trump could lose Indiana and still capture the nomination anyway.
“For the last month or so, Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates has been clear: Win Indiana and California.But after his strong showings in the Northeast, Indiana no longer seems to be a must-win state to capture the Republican nomination. Sure, winning the state would be very helpful toward gaining a majority of delegates. Without Indiana, he would struggle to get the 1,237 bound delegates needed to wrap up the nomination heading into the convention. But there’s now a credible path to winning on the first ballot without it.The main reason is Mr. Trump’s success on Tuesday among Pennsylvania’s 54 unpledged delegates…”
Despite the insistence among Democrats, the handwringing #neverTrump GOP establishment, pro-Ted Cruz conservative journalists, and others that Donald Trump is a certain loser in November, a George Washington University bipartisan poll of 1,000 registered voters found that the ex-Celebrity Apprentice star and presumptive Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton are in a virtual dead heat.
A new Rasmussen Poll of 1,000 likely voters similarly revealed that Trump and Clinton are tied at 38 percent, but with 24 percent indicating they would consider staying home or going third party if either becomes the nominee.
In another new Rasmussen poll, 89 percent of Republican voters now think Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination, up 18 points in just one week.
Like him or hate him, Trump’s appeal extends beyond a sizable segment of the Republican base to so-called Reagan Democrats and Independents. A Democrat strategist has even claimed that about 40 percent of the Bernie Sanders cohort will vote for Trump over Clinton, should the former Secretary of State get her party’s nomination.
Many Cruz loyalists have conceded that Indiana is a must win for Team Ted. “If Donald Trump wins in Indiana, or more aptly put – if Ted Cruz doesn’t win in Indiana, the entire anti-Trump effort will suffer a mortal and unrecoverable defeat,” the Conservative Treehouse declared. “Like Florida in March, tens of millions are now being spent [by the #neverTrump movement] to psychologically target the larger electorate in Indiana with a constant barrage of negative attack ads.”
Separately, Donald Trump had to take an alternative route into the California GOP convention venue to avoid protesters, some of whom engaged in violence. The California Primary is scheduled for June 7.
In the clip below, anti-poverty advocate Nikki Johnson-Huston told O’Reilly Factor host Bill O’Reilly last night on FNC that many black voters who otherwise strongly lean Democrat will vote Trump in the November election.
Who do you think will win the Indiana Primary, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz?
[Photo by Darron Cummings/AP]