Bernie Sanders: New York Polls Understating My Support

Bernie Sanders isn’t letting the fact that he’s trailing Hillary Clinton in New York (at least according to the polls) get him down, and he’s encouraging his supporters to follow his lead. As Politico reports, Bernie believes the New York polls are understating his support among New Yorkers, and he’s telling his supporters and potential voters that this isn’t the first time that the polls have shown him running way behind in error.

“Those are the public polls. The bottom line is, let’s look at the real poll tomorrow. Generally speaking, polling has underestimated how we do in elections.”

So, in a nutshell, even though New York is a big deal, the Sanders campaign has “been here before.”

Back in early March, Bernie Sanders was down by as many as 25 points in Michigan polls leading up to that state’s primary election. Hillary Clinton thought she had it in the bag, and political pundits and media personalities pretty much threw Bernie under the bus. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Bernie Sanders pulled off an upset victory on March 8. Even though Bernie Sanders only won the Michigan primary with 49.8 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48.3 percent, it did allocate the Vermont senator over half of Michigan’s 130 delegates.

It was also a win, no matter how slight, that nobody thought would or could happen. Although the polls said, fairly conclusively, that Bernie Sanders was too far behind to touch Clinton, he still managed to beat her outright.

There’s a lot at stake for Bernie Sanders in New York. Up for grabs for the Democratic contenders are 247 delegates, which are allocated proportionately depending on the results of the primary election. If Sanders loses New York by a landslide, it could make it next to impossible for him to stop Hillary Clinton from reaching the 2,383 she needs to clinch the Democratic presidential nomination this summer. Alternatively, if Bernie Sanders pulls off another upset victory in New York or even if he manages only a tight race, he’s still in the game.

Currently, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Bernie Sanders is trailing Hillary by almost 13 points among likely voters in New York. Additionally, according to the polls, there’s no indication that Sanders is making up any ground between himself and the Democratic front-runner even though both Sanders and Clinton are drawing huge crowds in New York.

Despite the polls (which have been very wrong before about Bernie Sanders’ chances of primary victory), Bernie is still clinging to hope that his message is getting through and that he has a shot at the White House.

“The main point is, I think, we have a message that’s resonating all over this country. We have enthusiasm. We have energy. People understand it’s too late for establishment politics and economics. They want real change in the country. They want leadership to stand up to the billionaire class. That’s what we are providing.”

Despite Bernie Sanders’ reassuring platitudes to his voter base, though, the Sanders campaign really hasn’t been here before, reports the Washington Post. In Michigan, Bernie was able to pull off an upset victory largely because of that state’s open primary. New York has a closed primary system, which means that all primary voters must cast their vote for a candidate running in the party they claimed when they registered to vote. In layman’s terms, registered Democrats must vote for a Democratic candidate, registered Republicans must vote for a Republican candidate, and registered Independents must vote for an Independent candidate. Bernie Sanders’ campaign has gotten a lot of traction from Independents, and in New York, they won’t be able to support him in the primary and have their vote counted.

This means it is much more unlikely that Bernie Sanders will be able to unexpectedly close the gap in New York than it was in Michigan. With the New York primary happening tomorrow, April 19, Bernie Sanders supporters are still “Feelin’ the Bern” and hoping it’s enough.

[Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images]