With just six days to go before the critically important April 19 New York primary, polls are beginning to reveal a clearer picture of who will win on both the Democratic and Republican sides. Four new polls released in the past three days show no significant change in the New York race for Democratic underdog Bernie Sanders or Republican front-runner Donald Trump.
With 95 delegates on the Republican side and 291 for the Democrats, New York is the second-biggest prize in the entire primary campaign, with only California more valuable in terms of delegates available. For Bernie Sanders who trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 214 pledged delegates, every one of those New York delegates is like gold to his campaign.
Bernie Sanders in New York: “hopeful that he can defy the polls and score an upset.” https://t.co/VQRzBkMOqL
— Tara McKelvey (@Tara_Mckelvey) April 11, 2016
Sanders is coming off a streak of winning seven of eight contests in Western states — though six of his wins came in caucus votes, not primary elections — allowing him to claim “momentum” heading into the New York primary. But according to the latest polls this week, that momentum looks like it’s about to go up in smoke in New York, the state where Sanders was born in 1941 and lived until the mid-1960s.
The outlook appears a little better for Sanders in the delegate-rich eastern states of Maryland and Pennsylvania, which vote one week after New York, according to polls coming out of those states as well.
Watch an NBC News analysis of what has become a bitter and increasingly personal battle in New York between Sanders and Clinton, in the video report below.
On the Republican side of the race, polls show Donald Trump routing his challengers, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich.
Two polls issued on Tuesday showed Trump with a seemingly insurmountable lead. A Siena College poll put Trump at 50 percent, 23 points ahead of Kasich and 33 on top of Cruz.
A Quinnipiac poll also on Tuesday showed an even more emphatic lead for Trump by 35 points. The Quinnipiac survey showed Trump with support from 55 percent of Republican voters in New York state, compared to Kasich with 20 percent and Cruz with 19.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 13, 2016
While the race appears more interesting on the Democratic side, Sanders — despite crisscrossing the state to hold his arena-size campaign rallies and reportedly spending $2.5 million on political advertising in the New York City area alone — has made little headway against Hillary Clinton.
While Tuesday’s Siena College poll of 538 likely Democratic New York voters showed Sanders at his closest point to Clinton, 10 points behind, the Quinnipiac poll the same day put Clinton 13 points ahead, which was in line with the two polls released on Monday in New York.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on Monday put Clinton at 55 percent support, 14 points ahead of Sanders. Also on Monday, a Public Policy Polling survey showed 51 percent backing for Clinton, an 11-point lead over Bernie Sanders.
In fact, of nine polls in the New York Democratic race that have come out in April, only the Siena College poll and a YouGov poll from April 1 put Sanders as close as 10 percentage points behind Clinton.
Polling averages can often reveal a more accurate view of who will win a particular election, compared to any individual poll, and both Trump and Clinton appear headed for comfortable victories in New York according to those averages.
MORE ELECTION COVERAGE FROM THE INQUISITR:
- Bernie Sanders Polls: Huge Opportunity In New York — Black And Hispanic Voters Are Undecided
- New York Polls: Donald Trump Dominates, Bernie Sanders Struggles To Catch Hillary Clinton In Crucial State
- Bernie Sanders Can Win Democratic Nomination — If He Reaches These Goals In Upcoming Primaries
- Donald Trump’s Troubles: Campaign Blunders, Growing Opposition Likely To Sink Trump’s Campaign
- Bernie Sanders Curtails Hillary Clinton’s Lead In Delegate-Rich California And New York
- Bernie Sanders Turnout: Young Voters Say They Back Sanders But Don’t Show Up To Vote For Him
- National Polls: Clinton’s Lead Against Bernie Sanders Is Almost Gone
The election-projection site FiveThirtyEight.com compiles its average by “weighting” each poll based on a number of factors, including past accuracy of each polling organization. According to the polling averages compiled by that site, Clinton leads Sanders in New York 52.4 percent to 38.4 percent, which is a 14-point advantage.
Donald Trump crushes his opposition in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, with 52.1 percent to just 22 for Kasich — a 30.1 point lead — and 17.5 for Cruz.
With six days remaining, polls say that there is little question who will win the New York primary — Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Unless, that is, something monumental changes before April 19.
[Photos by Mel Evans/Associated Press, Mike Groll/Associated Press]