The New York primary will prove a major turning point in both the Republican and Democratic presidential races, and the latest polls show that Donald Trump is poised to win big, while Bernie Sanders, on the Democratic side, continues to face a steep uphill climb in his effort to catch frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
For Trump, what appears to be his impending landslide victory on April 19 in his home state of New York would restore the momentum that he lost with a humiliating, 13-point loss to Ted Cruz in Wisconsin last Tuesday.
— Donald Trump 2016 (@Vote_For_Trump) April 10, 2016
But for Bernie Sanders, the New York primary is a matter of keeping the perception of momentum that he has built with seven victories in eight contest in western states since March 22. But most of those states were lightly populated, with small delegate counts — and six of those Sanders victories came in caucuses, rather than primary elections.
By contrast, New York is a primary election, and Sanders has fared less well in primaries compared to caucuses. New York also has much larger population of black voters, with whom Sanders has struggled to find traction. Hillary Clinton has dominated that demographic.
For an expert analysis of polls heading into the New York primary April 18, watch the video below, from The Majority Report With Sam Seder.
So, what do New York primary polls say about Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, with just over a week left before the voting takes place?
On Sunday, a new Fox News poll showed Trump crushing his two remaining rivals in the Empire State. In fact, the poll shows Wisconsin winner Ted Cruz not only showing no signs of “momentum” coming off of that victory, but actually sinking.
The Fox News poll puts Cruz in third place with just 15 percent support, seven points behind longshot candidate John Kasich — the Ohio governor whose only victory so far came in his home state — at 22 percent.
Trump, on the other hand, holds 54 percent of New York Republican voters, according to the Fox News poll, which surveyed 602 “likely” Republican New York voters by landline and cell phone between April 4 and April 7. The poll has a four-point margin of error.
How does the Fox News poll compare with other recent polls for Donald Trump in the New York primary? The results line up well with other surveys.
The 32-point lead in the Fox poll is statistically the same at the 34-point lead Trump holds in an Emerson College poll conducted over the same time period, while a Monmouth College poll taken between April 3 and April 5 showed Trump with a 27-point New York advantage.
In other words, Ted Cruz or John Kasich will need some sort of unforeseen development that throws the New York Republican race into complete turmoil if they are to have even a prayer of coming close to Trump and claiming a significant share of the state’s 95 delegates.
The situation on the Democratic side is somewhat more confusing — but even though results have swung between polls, Hillary Clinton continues to hold a comfortable, if not landslide-level, lead over Bernie Sanders.
— Progressive Man (@WeNeedHillary) April 10, 2016
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken between March 29 and April 1 showed that Sanders had surged to just 10 points behind Clinton, which at least appeared to be striking distance with, at the time, nearly three weeks to go.
But the Fox News and Emerson College polls issued more recently paint a very different picture, with Sanders facing an 18-point deficit according to Emerson and a 16-point deficit in the Fox survey.
An Emerson College poll taken between March 14 and March 16 showed Clinton with an incredible 48-point lead over Sanders, leading some analysts to declare the race in New York to be tightening, based in the newer Emerson result. But that earlier Emerson poll appears to be an outlier, with no other poll taken this year showing Clinton with more than a 21-point lead in New York.
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The New York primary is still nine days away, but the polls show that Donald Trump will regain his momentum on the way to the Republican nomination. But for the Democrats, Bernie Sanders will apparently watch his western state momentum evaporate with the race moving back to the northeast.
[Photos by Andrew Renneisen, Theo Stroomer/Getty Images]