New York Primary Polls 2016: Democrat And Republican Results In Big State Could Effectively End The Race

The most recent 2016 New York primary polls could still easily be swayed by the forces of momentum and campaigning, but both the Democrat and Republican results are pointing toward sizable victories for each party’s frontrunner, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Quinnipiac University published their latest results on Thursday, and it’s perhaps the most accurate New York primary poll released to date for Democrats. With a sample size of nearly 700 likely voters, the pollster is calling the race 54 percent for Hillary and 42 percent for Bernie Sanders. That 12-point spread falls well outside of the poll’s 3.7 percent margin of error.

This lead may be difficult for Bernie to upheave. According to QU primary poll assistant director Maurice Carroll, both Clinton and Donald have carved out legacies in New York City that date back long before their 2016 campaigning began. For former state Senator Hillary, that reach expands well beyond NYC.

“The home-court advantage helps both party’s front-runners in the presidential primaries in New York. Trump, whose name is emblazoned all over New York City buildings, trounces the other two Republicans, while Clinton, the adopted daughter from Chappaqua leads Sanders in double digits on the Democratic side… When she was New York’s junior senator, [Hillary] worked hard to woo upstaters, but it’s only astronomical leads in New York City that build her big overall margins.”

Still, it is worth noting that the Quinnipiac numbers show a much slimmer spread between Bernie and Clinton than the one released by Emerson University earlier this month. That New York primary poll showed Hillary trouncing Sanders with a massive 71 percent of the vote — 48 percentage points ahead of Bernie’s modest 23 percent share. QU’s more recent data, with almost twice the number of Emerson’s respondents, may indicate that Sanders’ disadvantage is not quite so insurmountable.

On the Republican side, however, Trump’s lead is so commanding it’s hard to imagine any significant change taking place in the three weeks before the New York primary. In the most recent polling from QU, Donald has a whopping 36 percentage point lead on his closest rival Ted Cruz; each candidate held 56 percent and 20 percent of the vote, respectively. John Kasich is just behind at 19 percent.

Unlike Democrats, Republicans have more information to choose from when it comes to New York primary polls. One survey from GOP pollster Optimus had a sample size of 14,234 likely voters with a margin of error of just one percentage point. In that prediction, Trump’s win was still quite decisive — Donald walked away with 50 percent of the vote compared to 24 percent for John and 16 percent for Ted. Not a single New York poll released in March showed Trump with less than a 20-point spread, reported Real Clear Politics.

Although Donald seemingly dominates the New York primary polls for Republicans, QU reports that he’ll be beaten by the Democratic nominee there whether it ends up being Bernie or Clinton. Both candidates will take New York by a wide margin in the 2016 general election no matter who the GOP nominates. The closest November head-to-head presented by Quinnipiac was Hillary vs. Kasich, a contest in which they still estimated she would end the night with 46 percent of the vote to his 41 percent.

Neither party will be taking the 2016 New York primary polls lightly. The state boasts 95 delegates for Republicans and 291 for Democrats — respectively the second and fourth biggest prizes for each race. On the liberal side, 44 of them are super delegates. Neither primary is winner-take-all.

[Image via Afton Almaraz/Getty Images]