The 2016 Wisconsin primary polls show uncomfortably close results for the remaining presidential hopefuls. For both Democrats and Republicans, it’s difficult to say who will claim victory in the only race up for voting on Tuesday.
UPDATE: As you can read in Inquisitr‘s latest analysis, the most recent 2016 Wisconsin poll results are showing primary victories for Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz.
On the Democratic side, Wisconsin primary polls are indicating that Hillary Clinton may have carved out a slight lead over Bernie Sanders. In the most recent numbers from the Emerson College Polling Society, Hillary is coming out 6 percentage points ahead of Bernie with 50 percent of the vote compared to his 44 percent. Of the 439 likely voters who responded, 5 percent had still not decided for whom they would be voting.
UPDATE: On Wednesday, the latest Marquette Law School poll showed the Wisconsin primary results tilting toward Sanders. Bernie landed 49 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 44 percent. Hillary’s disadvantage is, however, within the poll’s 6.3 percent margin of error.
One other Wisconsin poll from Marquette University released more than a month ago showed Sanders with a 1 percent lead over Clinton — though this was with a nearly 7 percent margin of error. That’s unlikely to tell us anything about Bernie’s chances in Tuesday’s primary, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, who gave the poll almost no weight and called the Wisconsin primary with an 84 percent chance win for Clinton. That’s no small victory as the state offers 96 delegates, 10 of whom are super delegates.
A breakdown of this Wisconsin poll’s demographics reveals trends similar to the rest of the Democratic race across the nation. As usual, Sanders is trouncing Clinton among young voters in the Wisconsin primary predictions — with 67 percent to her 29 percent. A lack of minority constituents in the state, like Latinos and African Americans, also complicates Hillary’s position — these two groups have been two of her most loyal sources of support on the road to 2016. Alternatively, older voters, particularly those 75 and older, are heavily locked up for Clinton.
Some, including a column by Winston Ross in Newsweek, believe that those demographics could be key to determine what will happen at the Wisconsin polls. With just one recent poll available, it’s hard to project what the state’s 2016 race holds; but it’s also possible that Democrats may be facing another Michigan — where Hillary was polling as much as 20 percent ahead of Bernie until the day before the race. The Wisconsin primary, like Michigan, is open to independents, according to FairVote.
“Sanders’ Michigan win was an important one because everyone can now point to it as evidence that the pundits and the polls are lying to you. If he wins in Wisconsin, that lends credence to the idea that Michigan was no fluke, and that [Bernie] belongs in the race.”
For Republicans, the Wisconsin primary is likewise difficult to call based on poll information alone. Using the same Emerson poll as for Democrats, Ted Cruz is beating out Donald Trump by one percentage point — though that’s in a poll with a 4.6 percent margin of error. With a winner-take-all race of 42 delegates in Wisconsin, that scant advantage could be major for Ted — who currently trails Donald by more than 250 delegates.
Another recent Wisconsin poll from Republican group Free Beacon calls an even bigger win for Ted, with a 5 percentage-point lead on Donald. That poll had a sample size of 500 likely voters, slightly larger than the Emerson data. In both primary polls, Ohio governor John Kasich languished behind his competitors by more than 10 percentage points.
After weeks of crammed Tuesday and Saturday elections, the 2016 Wisconsin primary polls for the lone race are getting more scrutiny than ever — making it a star state for both Democrats and Republicans hoping the results will tip in their favor.
[Image via Mel Evans/AP Photo]