How disruptive to the global world would it be if Donal Trump became President of the United States? The EIU believes such a win would be so threatening to the entire world that they consider a presidential victory by the outspoken businessman a “top ten global risk.” They consider the Republican candidate far more destructive than the UK exiting the EU, Chinese expansionism clashing in the South China Sea, or a collapse of the oil sector causing a serious shock to the markets.
Only the Grexit, (Greece defaulting on their significant European loans, thus provoking a certain collapse of the EU) a total European Union dismantlement, or Russia’s further involvement in Syria are considered more threatening than a President Trump.
According to Politico, the possibility of Donald Trump becoming president is the first time EIU ever listed a political candidate as a global risk.
The EIU, short for the Economist Intelligence Unit, is a research and advisory group that specializes in global forecasting and analysis in risk services, including economic, political, and security threats.
The British research group issues points and, from there, creates a top 10 list. In this case, they gave the same amount of points, 12 out of 25, to a Trump presidency as the disruption of the global economy due to an act of jihadi terrorism.
The Economist Intelligence Unit did rank the likelihood of a Trump presidency as unlikely, predicting instead that Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton would defeat the brash Republican favorite. Yet, although they contended that there was an unlikelihood that the brash Trump could pull off an upset, they still shared their concern about global risk and the stability of the United States “especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn.”
Although the respected research group is not based out of the United States, they did demonstrate that they understood how the American democratic system worked and how such an outsider with such extreme ideas could disrupt the delicate workings of Congress. They expressed concern that there would be extreme turmoil within Congress should be a Trump presidency and predicted gridlock. They fear that American policy within and around the world would suffer if the Donald took office.
“It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress – albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”
In addition, they admitted that although Trump has not revealed many of his policies, his very public stance on restrictions of Muslims have not gone unheard across the pond. Here, they expressed concern that if Trump took office, his extreme policies would increase jihadi recruitment and cause an increase in global terror.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”
While Trump has been popular amongst voters on his stance against sending jobs to China, ironically, the EIU has stated that the top risk has to do with this very same country. The global fear of China’s economic collapse, described by the organization as a “hard landing,” could result in serious global consequences. The researchers also mention that if China’s economy slowdown becomes direr than what forecasters have already predicted, then this could continue to drive down the price of commodities such as metals and oil.
Putting Republican candidate Trump on the top 10 global risks is a strong indication of what other countries and global forecasters think of a presidency. If you are a Trump supporter, does this dire forecast of global risk change your stance on the success of Donald Trump as president?
[Photo by Gerald Herbert/AP]