Of the five states up for voting tomorrow, the 2016 Missouri primary polls are the least watched on both the Democratic and Republican side.
That’s partially because the midwestern state is dwarfed by Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Illinois in terms of delegates — it’s the only state that offers fewer than 100 on the Democratic side. For perspective, it’s also the only Republican contest not among the ten biggest 2016 primaries — which is probably why Missouri polls are severely lacking compared to everything else coming on Tuesday.
Just a day before Missourians cast their ballots, there is single recent 2016 Missouri primary poll on the Republican side, and just two on the Democratic side. While the latter features one Public Policy Polling survey with more than 800 likely voters, the other data revealed to give locals — and Americans looking in — some idea of what might happen on March 15 is based on just 200 respondents.
For Republicans, that data reflects what is being seen across the other four states holding elections on Tuesday. Even if there is just one Missouri primary poll, Donald Trump is leading it by seven percentage points, which oddly enough is also the poll’s margin of error. Trailing him is Ted Cruz, with 29 percent of the vote to Donald’s 38. Marco Rubio comes in at a distant third with nine percent of the vote, but he could easily be overtaken by John Kasich, who is hanging on with eight percent, according to the Fort Hays State University calculation.
Of course, none of these poll numbers really matter except for Cruz and Trump, as Missouri’s primary is winner-take-all. All 52 delegates will head into the pocket of the same candidate — more than likely Trump in this case.
For Democrats, there’s a bit more comparison to be made ahead of the Missouri primary. The Fort Hays poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders by seven percent, with 47 compared to 40 percent of the vote. Unfortunately for Hillary, that prediction loses a bit of its luster when taking note of the margin of error, eight percent,which exceeds her advantage.
Fortunately, the 2016 Missouri primary polls do have one reliable set of data in the mix. Still Public Policy Polling doesn’t really offer much in terms of definitive answers about the race: Bernie has a single-point lead on Clinton, and the poll has a 3.4 percent margin of error.
A staunchly conservative state, the Missouri primary is more important for Republicans than it is for Democrats. The 84 delegates — 13 of which are super delegates — that it is worth for either Hillary or Bernie make up just over 10 percent of the 802 delegates that await assignment tomorrow. Though the Democratic rivals are close enough that every one of those convention votes counts, this low yield seems like a single hair in Donald Trump’s toupee compared to the 2,323 needed to win the nomination.
Aside from the polls for the Missouri primary, March 15 has been referred as “the other Super Tuesday” in the media due to the huge number of delegates up for grabs. On the Republican side, 367 delegates are available — the majority of which are winner-take-all. The Democratic side is a bit more tricky, with its divide between delegates and super delegates. In total, the five states up to bat tomorrow hold 802 delegates, 102 of which are unpledged.
[Image via Scott Olson/Getty Images]