The most recent 2016 North Carolina primary polls are calling results that allow little room for dreaming of the Democratic and Republican opponents of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
On the Democratic side, Clinton is trouncing Bernie Sanders by 20 percent or more in nearly every recent North Carolina primary poll. On the Republican side, things aren’t quite as decisive, but Donald holds a more than a 10 percent advantage in all but one of the latest 2016 surveys in the state.
Still, Trump’s slight lead on his competitors in the North Carolina polls isn’t quite the boon it is for him in the winner-take-all states of Florida, Ohio and Missouri on Tuesday. Since the 72 delegates will be doled out proportionally, a less-than-crushing win won’t give him quite the boost it will if he lands either of those other three states’ 2016 primaries.
That’s not to say Donald won’t walk away with a smile on his face when the North Carolina primary closes. The most recent poll, from Public Policy Polling, projects Trump with 44 percent of the vote — a full 11 points ahead of Ted Cruz. Even further back, John Kasich and Marco Rubio walk away with 11 and 7 percent, respectively — which is arguably nothing at this point in the race, and certainly not the kind of big wins they need to stay relevant. Apart from being the latest information to hit the web, this poll also has the largest sample size with 749 likely voters.
Another North Carolina primary poll from High Point University has a similar breadth of data, and it’s calling for an even bigger victory for Donald. The numbers predict Trump taking nearly half of the vote, with a 20-percent lead over Cruz at 28 percent. Another poll from WRAL-TV Raleigh released at the beginning of the month lands somewhere between these other two estimations. Only one of the Republican calculations is showing a tight race: Non-partisan group Civitas reports just a 6 percent advantage for Donald over Cruz, but it also has the smallest pool of respondents of any of the four and a 4.4 percent margin of error.
On the other hand, Democrats in the North Carolina primary have not even one poll that puts Clinton and Sanders on a level playing field. It is perhaps notable, however, that the Public Policy Polling number crunching is the most recent and has the largest sample size. It’s also the poll where Bernie is losing by the least amount; he trails Clinton by 9 percent.
Just like on the Republican side, Civitas is once again the outlier of the group. The North Carolina primary poll indicates a 29 percent spread between Hillary and Sanders. Like with the GOP, High Point University and WRAL-TV fall somewhere in the middle of these two extremes, which may perhaps demonstrate that Clinton will end up coming out on top with a lead somewhere in the mid-20s. With 121 delegates at stake — 14 of which are super delegates — such a demanding show of support could be great news for Hillary.
Aside from the divided polls for the North Carolina primary, March 14 has been referred as “the other Super Tuesday” in the media due to the huge number of delegates up for grabs. On the Republican side, 367 delegates are available — the majority of which are winner-take-all. The Democratic side is a bit more tricky, with its divide between delegates and superdelegates. In total, the five states up to bat tomorrow hold 802 delegates, 102 of which are unpledged.
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