Donald Trump has good news in polls from upcoming states, with a chance to essentially wrap up the nomination with big wins on Tuesday.
The long-term outlook is much more bleak for the polarizing GOP candidate, with some big signs that Donald Trump will struggle greatly against whoever the Democrats end up nominating.
For Donald Trump, winning the nomination doesn’t seem too difficult at this point. Despite sharp attacks both from his opponents and from Republican Party leaders like Mitt Romney and John McCain, Trump has maintained his lead in the polls and is looking to some big victories this week.
The CNN Poll of Polls found that Trump is holding leads in Ohio and Florida, two states with a large amount of delegates. Wins in both of these states — especially in Ohio where John Kasich is governor and holds the home-field advantage — could put enough space between Trump and his opponents that he can ride it through to the nomination.
While Donald Trump is dominating polls for the Republican primary, there are signs that he’s got a very difficult road ahead in the general election. Trump’s sharp rhetoric against illegal immigration has created difficulty among Hispanic voters, a problem that dates back to his speech announcing the presidential run in which he said that Mexico is sending its “rapists” to the United States.
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best,” Trump said. “They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”
The problems are persisting. New polling from Gallup shows that Trump is by far the least popular candidate among Hispanic voters. Just 12 percent of these voters viewed Trump favorably, while 77 percent were unfavorable.
But Donald Trump’s poll numbers are terrible even among Hispanics registered as Republicans. Gallup found that Trump ranks behind Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich — and even Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
That presents huge problems for the general election. Back in 2012, Mitt Romney won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote, which led to big losses in places like New Mexico and Nevada. Trump is polling even below that, Gallup noted.
Not clear what's happening with the GOP electorate but Trump becoming even more unpopular among November electorate: https://t.co/Nmv19Ktj2m— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2016
“This suggests that if Trump ends up being the GOP nominee, his unusually negative image among Hispanics could make it difficult for him to equal Romney’s 2012 share of the Hispanic vote,” the polling found. “In particular, this could present a challenge for Trump in key swing states where Hispanics are a sizable percentage of the electorate.”
And as the Washington Post has noted, Trump may only be leading the Republican pack because the race remains fractured.
“Trump is winning right now in part because he’s running against three other people. In the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, he trails Ted Cruz in a one-on-one race. In a general election against a Democrat whom even Republican Hispanics view more positively than him, it’s very hard to imagine that Trump would somehow win a majority of that population. Especially since Hispanics have voted Democratic by wide margins for years.”
Donald Trump could have other problems beyond his polls showing weaknesses among Hispanic voters. The Republican Party establishment has made it know that they don’t want Trump as the nominee, so he may be in for a summer of attacks not only from his Democratic opponent, but from within his own party.
[Image via Instagram/Donald Trump]